#5Kapri Bibbs

RB·Colorado State·20132.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kapri Bibbs is a Featured Back for Colorado State. Kapri's 2013 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 247 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kapri Bibbs's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1741 Rush yards31 Rush TD281 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions59 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency35
Volume74
Explosiveness64
Consistency74
Receiving13

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Tulsa (SP+ -19).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsColorado	L27-41	-0.7	15	70	4.7	2	1	1	0	0.20
2	@Tulsa	L27-30	-18.7	9	83	9.2	0	—	—	—	0.56
3	vsCal Poly	W34-17	—	11	48	4.4	1	1	14	0	0.33
4	@Alabama	L6-31	34.1	5	12	2.4	0	1	12	0	0.21
5	vsUTEP	W59-42	-28.9	13	147	11.3	3	1	7	0	0.34
7	vsSan José State	L27-34	-5.1	12	69	5.8	0	—	—	—	0.10
8	@Wyoming	W52-22	-15.3	29	201	6.9	3	—	—	—	0.15
9	@Hawai'i	W35-28	-14.3	33	137	4.2	3	—	—	—	-0.13
10	vsBoise State	L30-42	11.3	25	69	2.8	3	—	—	—	0.14
11	vsNevada	W38-17	-16.8	30	312	10.4	4	1	2	0	0.15
12	@New Mexico	W66-42	-14.9	38	291	7.7	6	—	—	—	0.29
13	@Utah State	L0-13	4.2	18	54	3.0	0	1	4	0	-0.10
14	vsAir Force	W58-13	-16.9	16	79	4.9	3	1	13	0	0.42
1	vsWashington State	W48-45	8.2	27	169	6.3	3	1	6	0	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.0%

Passing plays

1.8%

Rushing plays

48.5%

Standard downs

32.7%

Passing downs

10.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.68 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.