#8Kaelon Black

RB·Indiana·20251.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kaelon Black is a Explosive Back for Indiana. Kaelon's 2025 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 173 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kaelon Black's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1039 Rush yards10 Rush TD187 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions36 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume51
Explosiveness52
Consistency47
Receiving14

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency47th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Indiana State.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsOld Dominion	W27-14	5.9	17	92	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.28
2	vsKennesaw State	W56-9	-5.4	10	57	5.7	0	—	—	—	0.08
3	vsIndiana State	W73-0	—	7	68	9.7	0	—	—	—	0.76
4	vsIllinois	W63-10	12.9	10	89	8.9	1	—	—	—	0.55
5	@Iowa	W20-15	19.7	11	38	3.5	0	—	—	—	-0.29
7	@Oregon	W30-20	25.9	7	31	4.4	0	—	—	—	-0.19
8	vsMichigan State	W38-13	-3.4	10	64	6.4	1	—	—	—	0.35
9	vsUCLA	W56-6	-8.7	10	70	7.0	0	1	10	0	0.37
10	@Maryland	W55-10	0.6	14	110	7.9	1	—	—	—	0.48
11	@Penn State	W27-24	18.1	12	32	2.7	1	—	—	—	-0.03
12	vsWisconsin	W31-7	-4.4	6	12	2.0	0	1	9	0	-0.13
14	@Purdue	W56-3	-6.1	13	66	5.1	2	1	6	0	0.28
15	vsOhio State	W13-10	30.1	16	69	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.19
20	vsOregon	W56-22	25.9	12	63	5.3	2	—	—	—	—
20	vsAlabama	W38-3	14.8	15	99	6.6	1	1	11	0	—
20	vsMiami	W27-21	20.7	17	79	4.6	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.8%

Passing plays

1.4%

Rushing plays

29.4%

Standard downs

19.0%

Passing downs

14.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.16 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 16 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.