#33Josh Adams

RB·Notre Dame·2017 20152.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Josh Adams is a 2-year Explosive Back for Notre Dame. Josh's 2015 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 121 plays — a above-average rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2015, Josh has lived up to his recruiting pedigree.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Adams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2015

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9001
National rank: #300
High school: Central Bucks South
Hometown: Warrington, PA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2015 Production

Rushing

835 Rush yards6 Rush TD117 Carries7.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions42 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency83
Volume44
Explosiveness82
Consistency37
Receiving23

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency37th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (83th percentile).
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.32 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.77 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs USC (SP+ 17).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTexas	W38-3	3.7	5	49	9.8	2	—	—	—	0.84
2	@Virginia	W34-27	1.4	3	10	3.3	0	—	—	—	0.12
3	vsGeorgia Tech	W30-22	9.0	2	7	3.5	0	—	—	—	-0.18
4	vsMassachusetts	W62-27	-9.5	13	133	10.2	1	—	—	—	0.52
5	@Clemson	L22-24	24.0	2	2	1.0	0	—	—	—	-0.51
6	vsNavy	W41-24	12.1	8	38	4.8	0	2	12	0	-0.04
7	vsUSC	W41-31	16.8	1	26	26.0	0	—	—	—	1.77
10	@Pittsburgh	W42-30	11.1	20	147	7.3	0	1	5	1	0.42
11	vsWake Forest	W28-7	-4.5	17	141	8.3	1	2	-3	0	0.16
12	vsBoston College	W19-16	4.7	14	36	2.6	0	—	—	—	-0.52
13	@Stanford	L36-38	22.8	18	168	9.3	1	2	28	0	0.61
1	vsOhio State	L28-44	29.5	14	78	5.6	1	—	—	—	0.24

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.3%

Passing plays

1.9%

Rushing plays

27.2%

Standard downs

17.0%

Passing downs

11.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.62 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Notre Dame	2.7	0.410	—	50.4
2017	Notre Dame	5.1	0.440	+0.03	94.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.