#25Ito Smith

RB·Southern Miss·2017 20161.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ito Smith is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Southern Miss. Ito's 2016 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 308 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ito Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1459 Rush yards17 Rush TD265 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

43 Receptions459 Rec yards2 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency5
Volume91
Explosiveness50
Consistency66
Receiving71

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Savannah State.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Kentucky	W44-35	-2.6	36	173	4.8	1	5	40	0	0.24
2	vsSavannah State	W56-0	—	8	128	16.0	1	—	—	—	0.80
3	vsTroy	L31-37	1.1	20	131	6.6	2	3	17	0	0.08
4	@UTEP	W34-7	-16.1	16	108	6.8	0	4	33	1	0.32
5	vsRice	W44-28	-16.5	19	77	4.1	1	4	64	0	-0.21
6	@UTSA	L32-55	-11.2	20	94	4.7	1	3	22	0	0.13
7	@LSU	L10-45	25.3	16	64	4.0	1	6	46	0	0.15
9	vsMarshall	W24-14	-12.7	26	140	5.4	2	4	43	0	0.14
10	vsCharlotte	L27-38	-20.9	15	69	4.6	1	5	47	0	-0.01
11	@Old Dominion	L35-51	-0.7	20	97	4.8	3	1	11	0	0.28
12	@North Texas	L23-29	-14.6	19	113	5.9	2	3	67	0	0.24
13	vsLouisiana Tech	W39-24	3.1	24	127	5.3	0	4	63	0	0.16
1	vsLouisiana	W28-21	-8.7	26	138	5.3	2	1	6	1	0.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.7%

Passing plays

12.4%

Rushing plays

51.3%

Standard downs

36.0%

Passing downs

23.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Southern Miss	1.9	0.240	—	65.5
2017	Southern Miss	2.4	0.260	+0.02	62.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.