#23Evan Dickens

RB·Liberty·20252.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Evan Dickens is a Featured Back for Liberty. Evan's 2025 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 228 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Evan Dickens's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1325 Rush yards16 Rush TD228 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

6 Receptions78 Rec yards1 Rec TD13.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume89
Explosiveness56
Consistency64
Receiving10

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Delaware (SP+ -11).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMaine	W28-7	—	10	34	3.4	0	1	24	1	0.17
2	@Jacksonville State	L24-34	-6.7	13	114	8.8	1	1	8	0	0.40
3	@Bowling Green	L13-23	-12.6	14	82	5.9	1	1	17	0	0.50
4	vsJames Madison	L13-31	12.3	17	67	3.9	0	1	10	0	-0.28
5	@Old Dominion	L7-21	5.9	10	33	3.3	0	—	—	—	0.07
8	vsNew Mexico State	W30-27	-15.5	13	50	3.8	2	—	—	—	-0.08
10	vsDelaware	W59-30	-10.9	22	217	9.9	4	—	—	—	0.78
11	vsMissouri State	L17-21	-10.7	28	127	4.5	1	—	—	—	0.17
12	@Florida International	L27-34	-10.5	28	106	3.8	1	1	3	0	0.08
13	@Louisiana Tech	L28-34	-1.3	30	228	7.6	2	—	—	—	0.37
14	vsKennesaw State	L42-48	-5.4	43	267	6.2	4	1	16	0	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.3%

Passing plays

1.7%

Rushing plays

52.6%

Standard downs

38.8%

Passing downs

12.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.76
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.61 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.