#8Egypt Nelson

WR·Western Michigan·2026

Egypt Nelson is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Western Michigan.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Egypt Nelson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2026 Production

Receiving

5 Receptions37 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Air yards

Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.

Targets

7.1y

Avg depth

0.4y

After catch

71%

Catch rate

The ball travels 7.1 yards in the air on an average target — 1.8 yards shorter than the median. Another 0.4 comes after the catch.

Where he is targeted

targets · completion rate · yards

deep

100% · 23y

—

short

—

33% · 0y

100% · 14y

leftmiddleright

Depth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.

Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs WR peers

Efficiency0
Volume16
Explosiveness3
Consistency50
Pass-Down0

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Monmouth.

NIL Market Tier· 2026

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L12-13	12.2	2	-2	-1.0	0	1	-1.08
2	vsMonmouth	W49-14	—	3	39	13.0	1	23	0.64

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.5%

Passing plays

14.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

4.7%

Passing downs

7.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: -0.75
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.14 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).