#26Dontrell Hilliard

RB·Tulane·20173.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Dontrell Hilliard is a Featured Back for Tulane. Dontrell's 2017 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 190 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dontrell Hilliard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1091 Rush yards12 Rush TD210 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions115 Rec yards2 Rec TD14.4 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Punt returns0 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume76
Explosiveness44
Consistency57
Receiving25

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.57 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.04 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Tulsa (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGrambling	W43-14	—	11	36	3.3	0	2	77	1	0.31
2	@Navy	L21-23	-0.7	15	68	4.5	1	1	0	0	—
3	@Oklahoma	L14-56	25.5	19	104	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.41
4	vsArmy	W21-17	-5.3	14	134	9.6	1	—	—	—	0.44
6	vsTulsa	W62-28	-10.7	19	175	9.2	4	1	11	0	1.04
7	@Florida International	L10-23	-10.4	12	90	7.5	1	1	2	0	0.63
8	vsSouth Florida	L28-34	10.2	24	94	3.9	1	1	24	1	0.04
9	@Memphis	L26-56	7.8	19	67	3.5	0	1	6	0	-0.12
10	vsCincinnati	L16-17	-6.4	18	40	2.2	0	—	—	—	-0.24
11	@East Carolina	W31-24	-14.0	28	189	6.8	2	1	-5	0	0.35
12	vsHouston	W20-17	7.7	18	52	2.9	0	—	—	—	-0.18
13	@SMU	L38-41	-2.9	13	42	3.2	1	—	—	—	0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.6%

Passing plays

3.6%

Rushing plays

38.2%

Standard downs

31.7%

Passing downs

16.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.39 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.