#19Donnel Pumphrey

RB·San Diego State·2016 2015 20142.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Donnel Pumphrey is a 3-year Pass-Catching Back for San Diego State. Donnel's 2015 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 346 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donnel Pumphrey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1653 Rush yards17 Rush TD309 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions416 Rec yards3 Rec TD14.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Explosiveness46
Consistency70
Receiving85

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Utah State (SP+ -0).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSan Diego	W37-3	—	19	62	3.3	1	2	14	0	-0.07
2	@California	L7-35	12.1	21	85	4.0	0	2	23	0	-0.10
3	vsSouth Alabama	L27-34	-10.4	28	102	3.6	1	5	55	0	0.01
4	@Penn State	L21-37	11.3	18	56	3.1	1	5	53	0	0.05
5	vsFresno State	W21-7	-12.6	23	124	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.10
6	@Hawai'i	W28-14	-16.3	30	148	4.9	3	2	49	0	0.40
7	@San José State	W30-7	-4.5	20	152	7.6	1	3	55	1	0.55
8	vsUtah State	W48-14	-0.1	23	181	7.9	2	—	—	—	0.56
9	@Colorado State	W41-17	0.5	20	121	6.1	2	2	47	1	0.33
11	vsWyoming	W38-3	-16.7	29	140	4.8	0	3	29	0	0.00
12	@UNLV	W52-14	-16.2	14	139	9.9	2	—	—	—	0.49
13	vsNevada	W31-14	-7.1	23	154	6.7	2	1	8	0	0.34
14	vsAir Force	W27-24	4.7	16	90	5.6	0	2	64	1	0.21
1	vsCincinnati	W42-7	5.3	25	99	4.0	1	1	19	0	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.9%

Passing plays

17.7%

Rushing plays

47.0%

Standard downs

42.2%

Passing downs

27.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.59 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 40 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	San Diego State	5.0	0.380	—	93.5
2015	San Diego State	2.6	0.240	-0.14	73.2
2016	San Diego State	4.2	0.320	+0.08	110.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.