#19Donnel Pumphrey

RB·San Diego State·2016 2015 20145.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Donnel Pumphrey is a 3-year Featured Back for San Diego State. Donnel's 2014 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 311 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donnel Pumphrey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1867 Rush yards20 Rush TD276 Carries6.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

23 Receptions160 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Explosiveness76
Consistency63
Receiving48

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs San José State (SP+ -12).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2018	297	0.360	5.0	106.9
Jonathan Taylor	Wisconsin	2017	307	0.350	4.8	107.4
Jaret Patterson	Buffalo	2019	319	0.370	5.6	118.0
Mohamed Ibrahim	Minnesota	2022	314	0.330	5.3	103.6
Blake Corum	Michigan	2023	283	0.380	5.1	107.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Arizona	W38-7	—	19	111	5.8	2	1	31	0	0.40
2	@North Carolina	L27-31	0.0	17	100	5.9	2	5	18	0	0.38
4	@Oregon State	L7-28	3.2	17	89	5.2	1	2	14	0	0.22
5	vsUNLV	W34-17	-17.6	22	167	7.6	4	2	-3	0	0.41
6	@Fresno State	L13-24	-6.9	24	94	3.9	0	—	—	—	-0.01
7	@New Mexico	W24-14	-15.0	20	246	12.3	2	1	7	0	0.56
8	vsHawai'i	W20-10	-15.0	25	182	7.3	1	1	-4	0	0.33
10	@Nevada	L14-30	-7.3	13	85	6.5	0	1	3	0	-0.53
11	vsIdaho	W35-21	-17.4	26	142	5.5	1	1	3	0	0.17
12	@Boise State	L29-38	11.6	24	147	6.1	2	3	28	0	0.20
13	vsAir Force	W30-14	-1.4	27	131	4.9	1	1	14	0	0.02
14	vsSan José State	W38-7	-11.5	21	261	12.4	3	1	7	0	0.67
1	vsNavy	L16-17	3.4	21	112	5.3	1	4	42	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.1%

Passing plays

9.2%

Rushing plays

56.0%

Standard downs

40.3%

Passing downs

23.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.10 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 40 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	San Diego State	5.0	0.380	—	93.5
2015	San Diego State	2.6	0.240	-0.14	73.2
2016	San Diego State	4.2	0.320	+0.08	110.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.