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Iowa State

Iowa State Cyclones

Big 12·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1588#44
SP+
3.1#57
FPI
0.8
AP
NR
Nextvs Bowling Green · Wk 3Win prob 92%Model -21.1
Talent #68 (669.5)Recruiting class #542% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Iowa State

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Iowa State can't stay on schedule against Iowa

Matchup · 6d ago

Jaylen Raynor produced five of Iowa State's six explosive plays

Matchup · Sep 6

Roster · 126 players

FR 44SO 26JR 27SR 29
#PlayerPosClHtWt
1Jaylen RaynorQBSR6'1"208
5Connor MoberlyQBSO6'4"214
6Zane FloresQBSO6'3"215
16Wyatt BohmQBJR6'4"220
18Hudson KurlandQBFR6'4"193
0Cameron PettawayRBSO5'10"190
3Arnold Barnes IIIRBSR5'10"220
7Salahadin AllahRBJR6'0"225
20Caleb FrancoisRBFR6'2"210
21Aiden FloraRBSO6'0"195
22Ryver PeppersRBFR5'11"190
25Easton MillerRBJR6'1"230
27Gabriel WilsonRBFR5'9"190
44Wyatt ArcherRBJR5'10"195
2Cody JacksonWRSR6'0"190
4Carter PabstWRSO6'1"200
8Evan BoydWRJR6'3"212
9Omari HayesWRSR5'9"175
11Dominic OverbyWRSO6'5"200
12Braden GoellnerWRSR6'5"200
13Jamal Polite Jr.WRFR5'11"185
17Jordyn BaileyWRJR5'10"180
23Carson RobbinsWRSO6'0"187
33Zach EskildsenWRFR6'2"185
34Jeffrey RobertsWRFR6'0"193
80Malcolm WatkinsWRFR6'0"193
82Trevor FortenberryWRJR6'3"205
83Sam ZelenovichWRFR6'1"197
86Ray CoffeyWRSR5'10"195
89Ty ClaiborneWRSR6'2"215
10Cash HaydenTESO6'6"245
14Drake DeBaunTEFR6'6"255
19Tyler FortenberryTESR6'5"245
37Vince BenettiTEJR6'4"245
39AJ PetersenTEJR6'1"225
40Carson EdneyTEFR6'6"235
41Rylan BarnesTEJR6'3"230
48Jack BjornTESR6'7"260
81Luke GalerTEFR6'6"240
84Drew ByrdTEFR6'4"228
85Keaton RoskopTESO6'3"240
87Jordan VybornyTEFR6'5"235
88Christian GreenlawTEJR6'5"245
51Maasai KingOLSR6'4"310
52Kingston FotualiiOLFR6'3"295
54Cade MyerOLSR6'2"295
55Trevor BindelOLFR6'4"310
56Colin AmickOLSO6'6"305
61Benji MakelelaOLFR6'7"300
62Braden SimonsenOLSR6'3"290
63Braden SmithOLSO6'4"310
64Brady HarrOLFR6'8"275
65Garret RutledgeOLSO6'7"310
66Derek WordenOLFR6'5"295
68Makai SatOLJR6'2"335
69Dontrell HoltOLSO6'5"305
70Gavin ProudfootOLSR6'7"305
71Gabriel GreenleeOLSR6'7"300
72Austin BarrettOLJR6'6"315
74Gavin BrosciousOLJR6'5"303
77Caden MaasOLJR6'5"315
78DeAndre CarterOLSO6'5"345
79Jake TaylorOLJR6'6"310
44Trey VerdonDEFR6'1"245
47Tyler BurnsteinDEFR6'4"243
50Jack LimbaughDEFR6'3"235
55Jace GilbertDESO6'5"270
57Ajibola AfuyeDEFR6'5"250
88Isaac TerrellDESR6'2"255
91Blake HawkinsDESO6'4"235
92Caden CrawfordDESR6'4"251
93Jack JanikowskiDEJR6'2"255
96Chet AndrewsDESR6'3"245
98Malaki Ta'aseDEJR6'2"265
0Zaimir HawkDTJR6'4"303
13Kaleb Bilal-JonesDTFR6'1"294
53Jaden WeaverDTFR6'3"300
59Daniel HowardDTFR6'3"270
89Donovan FitzmauriceDTSO6'3"284
90Jareb RamosDTSR6'4"284
94Jake JonesDTFR6'2"292
95Ka'Mori MooreDTFR6'1"304
97Max BalounDTSR6'6"293
99Bryson LambDTSR6'2"295
7Sullivan SchlimgenLBSO6'1"220
8Tristan ExlineLBSR6'1"220
10Carson WillichLBSR6'1"220
11Willie Breland IIILBJR6'2"218
12Ethan SteckerLBFR6'4"227
16Malcolm JonesLBSR6'1"219
17Connor WelschLBSO6'2"197
31Montreze Smith Jr.LBSO5'11"214
34Beau GoodwinLBJR6'3"221
36Bradley EsserLBFR6'2"205
40Landon KalsbeckLBFR6'2"217
1Keyon WashingtonCBSO6'1"190
3Seth JohnsonCBSO5'10"180
5Beni NgoyiCBJR6'4"193
9Jaheim SingletaryCBSR6'2"201
18David CoffeyCBSO6'1"190
20Trillion SorrellCBFR6'1"175
26Tyrone Cotton IIICBFR6'1"178
29Toe SandersCBFR6'2"185
32Angelo JacksonCBSO6'1"196
38Amiri BarnesCBFR5'11"185
2Braden AwlsSSR6'1"190
4Micah HarperSSR5'10"189
6Drew SurgesSJR6'1"203
14Damarius RussellSFR5'11"186
19Eddie LemosSSR5'10"187
21Duhron GoodmanSSR6'0"193
22Xavier MartinezSJR6'1"202
24Brody MillerSFR6'1"186
33Brady HummelSFR6'0"185
35Tayten DuncanSFR5'11"180
42Matthew McClainSFR6'1"205
43Caden MatsonSSR6'0"200
93Greg HubbardPKFR6'2"215
94Chase SmithPKSO5'10"210
97Kyle KonrardyPKJR6'1"204
98Adlai LounsburyPKFR6'4"200
95Ethan GurneyPFR6'3"201
99Jonah DuPontPSO5'11"200
56Caleb SchmidtLSJR6'3"225
57Gavin SchielerLSFR6'4"223
60Jacob LyftogtLSJR5'11"235

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
25.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
13.0
scoring defense
Differential
+12.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
279.0#130
Yards / play
5.5#100
Passing yards / game
156.0#123
Rushing yards / game
123.0#109
First downs / game
12.0#137
3rd down %
34.8%#96
4th down %
——
Time of possession
26:43#118
Defense
Yards allowed / game
246.5#25
Yards / play allowed
3.9#23
Pass yards allowed / game
166.5#43
Rush yards allowed / game
80.0#27
3rd down % allowed
32.3%#52
Sacks
6#20
Tackles for loss
13#47
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#24
Takeaways
3#46
Giveaways
1#21
Penalties / game
5.0#32
Penalty yards / game
42.5#40

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Iowa State is in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers. The way in is 107th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.

Iowa State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #107
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
4.9 – 7.1
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
3.9
of 10 games
Bowl odds
32%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
92%
vs Bowling Green
Toughest
6%
vs BYU

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (29%)Bowl eligible 32% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBJaylen Raynor, Connor Moberly
+19.0 EPA
WROmari Hayes, Cody Jackson +5
+9.3 EPA
TEVince Benetti, Christian Greenlaw +1
+6.1 EPA
RBArnold Barnes, Easton Miller +2
-0.8 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBJaylen Raynor
~$828K
EPA +19.80.403/play49 snaps
RBAiden Flora
~$169K
EPA +3.30.123/play27 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1840th#83
Def-0.0077th#33
Explosiveness
Off1.4582nd#25
Def1.1077th#33
Field position
Off69.042nd#80
Def69.974th#37
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off5.6792nd#12
Def2.1785th#22
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 1
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.4063rd#52
Off · rush
0.0734th#92

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.0733rd#93
Def-0.0666th#48
Passing
Off0.4061st#54
Def0.1269th#43

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.83#101
2nd-level / open-field
0.74 / 0.68
Power / stuff (off)
50.0% / 14.5%
Havoc — total (def)
17.1%#59
Havoc — front 7 / DB
13.2% / 3.9%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.08
Def0.04
Pass downs
Off0.35
Def-0.08

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.15#1290.39#410.48#81
Defense-0.05#68-0.12#230.28#60

Elo Trajectory

Southeast Missouri StateFinal
Elo rating 1586 → 1588+2 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1635th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0274th
  • Offense success rate32%6th
  • Defense success rate allowed33%73rd

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs34%1st
  • Offense success — passing downs30%34th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs40%61st
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs16%97th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.484th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.168th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.282nd
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.050th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.617th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.561st
  • Offense highlight yards0.6426th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.6350th
  • Offense power success0.254th
  • Defense power success allowed0.6262nd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1752nd
  • Defense stuff rate0.1625th

Third down

  • Third down conversion35%27th
  • Third down distance faced7.043rd
  • Third down conversion allowed33%66th
  • Third down distance forced8.177th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1364th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.148th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.329th
  • Points per drive allowed1.572nd
  • Average starting field position2413th
  • Opponent starting field position3132nd
  • Available yards gained29%13th
  • Available yards allowed37%82nd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive70%29th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed82%46th
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.925th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.881st
  • Three-and-out rate60%3rd
  • Three-and-outs forced36%82nd

Roster

  • Returning usage3%2nd
  • Returning EPA4.74th
  • Team talent composite67051st
  • Recruiting class rank54.061st
  • Recruiting class points20361st

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.178#83 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.401#54
Rush EPA/play
+0.075#93
Explosiveness
1.450#25
Pts/opportunity
5.67#12
Success rate
32.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.327 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
-0.004#33 · above avg
Havoc rate (total)
17.1%#59
Front-7 havoc
13.2%
DB havoc
3.9%
Big play rate allowed
1.104#33
Success rate allowed
33.0%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

25.5 PPG offense, 13.0 allowed — +12.5 margin/game
Points per game
25.5
Points allowed/game
13.0
Scoring margin/game
+12.5
Turnover margin
+2won 3 · lost 1
Production returning
2%
Talent rank (247)
#68

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE40thEXPLOSIVENESS82thFINISHING92thFIELD POS42thDEFENSE77thHAVOC58th50th100th
Offense
40th
Explosiveness
82th
Finishing
92th
Field Pos
42th
Defense
77th
Havoc
58th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+6.8
#44
Offense
-1.6
#81
Defense
-8.4
#27
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 10 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.301.46
Starting field positionown 24.0own 31.1
Available yards29.0%36.6%
Scoring opportunities70.0%81.8%
Points per opportunity1.861.78
Three-and-out rate60.0%36.4%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
35.9%
Expected, given the spots
51.0%
Over expected
-15.1
Fourth down vs peers
-4
Fourth down vs the model
-100
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Iowa State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Iowa State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
AuburnSP+ +7.0
Off EPA/play +0.171Def EPA/play -0.007Elo 1678
Match
100%
PittsburghSP+ +10.1
Off EPA/play +0.193Def EPA/play -0.009Elo 1678
Match
99%
Florida InternationalSP+ -13.5
Off EPA/play +0.147Def EPA/play -0.003Elo 1409
Match
98%
IowaSP+ +18.0
Off EPA/play +0.166Def EPA/play -0.040Elo 1845
Match
98%
BaylorSP+ +4.9
Off EPA/play +0.166Def EPA/play -0.043Elo 1509
Match
98%
Louisiana TechSP+ -3.8
Off EPA/play +0.222Def EPA/play -0.000Elo 1405
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -2.6, #76 of 1282016: -6.9, #91 of 1282017: +10.6, #31 of 1302018: +10.4, #29 of 1302019: +14.2, #23 of 1302020: +20.5, #7 of 1242021: +14.1, #21 of 1302022: +5.8, #43 of 1312023: +8.2, #36 of 1332024: +5.5, #47 of 1342025: +6.4, #51 of 1362026: +6.8, #44 of 138
20152026
Now +6.8 · #44 of 138Best +20.5 in 2020Worst -6.9 in 2016

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.4-0.4
20258-45-4
67%
7.6+0.4
202411-37-3
79%
6.9+4.1
20237-66-3
54%
8.0-1.0
20224-81-8
33%
4.7-0.7
20217-65-4
54%
8.3-1.3
20209-38-2
75%
8.7+0.3
20197-65-4
54%
9.4-2.4
20188-56-3
62%
8.4-0.4
20178-55-4
62%
8.5-0.5

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

1.6%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.5-6.5. Wins the Big 12 in 1.1%.

If they finish with…

76%
2 losses
9.2%
3 losses
0.3%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

down 0.1 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 76% where the average Big 12 team is 56%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.77 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.9%.

Iowa State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk6at BYU5.7
  • wk4vs Utah4.4
  • wk8at Arizona4.0
  • wk13vs Kansas State3.8
  • wk10at Baylor3.2
  • wk12at UCF3.0

Who to root for

Games Iowa State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk11Central Michigan over Sacramento State0.5
  • wk3NC State over Vanderbilt0.5
  • wk5Kansas over Middle Tennessee0.5
  • wk3Colorado State over BYU0.4
  • wk11Iowa over Purdue0.4
  • wk5Vanderbilt over Georgia0.4
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 3.6-5.413 of 16 by title odds
1.1%
Wins the Big 12
3.2%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6Iowa State at BYU3.9
  • wk4Utah at Iowa State3.0
  • wk13Kansas State at Iowa State2.6
  • wk8Iowa State at Arizona2.6

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

49%
Bowl eligible
45%
Placed in a bowl
1.6%
In the playoff
54%
Season over in November

Iowa State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • First Responder Bowl7.1%
  • Independence Bowl6.6%
  • Rate Bowl5.8%
  • Liberty Bowl5.3%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl4.3%
  • Texas Bowl3.5%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Iowa State a player since 2010 — 22 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Iowa State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
RainesFL40
WashingtonOH40
PerryAZ31
JesuitCA30
LakewoodFL21
Blue SpringsMO20
CrespiCA20
George WashingtonWV20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.