#20Anthony Wales

RB·Western Kentucky·2016 20152.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Anthony Wales is a 2-year Explosive Back for Western Kentucky. Anthony's 2015 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 152 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Anthony Wales's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1091 Rush yards9 Rush TD155 Carries7.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions225 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency70
Volume68
Explosiveness80
Consistency63
Receiving54

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.04 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs North Texas (SP+ -25).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
5	@Rice	W49-10	-14.6	3	9	3.0	0	2	0	0	-0.40
6	vsMiddle Tennessee	W58-28	-4.6	19	111	5.8	0	1	6	0	0.15
7	@North Texas	W55-28	-25.0	21	193	9.2	2	5	66	1	1.04
8	@LSU	L20-48	19.7	12	54	4.5	0	3	5	1	0.06
9	@Old Dominion	W55-30	-14.8	16	185	11.6	4	1	13	0	0.87
10	vsFlorida Atlantic	W35-19	-9.8	18	140	7.8	0	—	—	—	0.55
12	@Florida International	W63-7	-16.6	16	110	6.9	0	2	8	0	—
13	vsMarshall	W49-28	3.5	24	131	5.5	1	3	25	0	0.01
14	vsSouthern Miss	W45-28	1.4	12	53	4.4	0	5	53	0	0.25
1	vsSouth Florida	W45-35	3.6	14	105	7.5	2	5	49	0	0.55

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.7%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

45.3%

Standard downs

26.8%

Passing downs

16.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.73 / 0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Western Kentucky	2.8	0.380	—	56.6
2016	Western Kentucky	7.0	0.570	+0.19	134.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.