#16Aidan O'Connell

QB·Purdue·2022 202112.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Aidan O'Connell is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Purdue. Aidan's 2021 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 423 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Aidan O'Connell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

315/440 Comp/Att3712 Pass yards28 Pass TD11 INT71.6% Comp %

Rushing

-120 Rush yards1 Rush TD25 Carries-4.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency88
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency84
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (88th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UConn (SP+ -26).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	@UConn	W49-0	-25.6	9/11	86	2	0	94.8	—	—	0.79
3	@Notre Dame	L13-27	17.4	11/18	104	0	2	64.9	8	0	0.01
4	vsIllinois	W13-9	4.3	12/19	182	1	2	61.5	-10	0	0.71
5	vsMinnesota	L13-20	14.4	34/52	371	1	1	72.7	-44	0	0.31
7	@Iowa	W24-7	11.4	30/40	375	2	0	98.3	-2	1	0.68
8	vsWisconsin	L13-30	20.1	24/32	200	1	3	53.6	-35	0	0.14
9	@Nebraska	W28-23	10.3	34/45	233	2	0	85.3	-9	0	0.15
10	vsMichigan State	W40-29	11.2	40/54	536	3	0	95.4	-13	0	0.72
11	@Ohio State	L31-59	29.3	40/52	390	4	0	91.6	—	—	0.50
12	vsNorthwestern	W32-14	-11.1	29/39	423	3	0	87.5	-7	0	0.55
13	vsIndiana	W44-7	-7.8	26/31	278	4	0	86.0	1	0	0.60
1	vsTennessee	W48-45	17.5	26/47	534	5	3	76.2	-9	0	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.5%

Passing plays

80.0%

Rushing plays

2.5%

Standard downs

43.3%

Passing downs

71.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.68

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Purdue	12.5	0.650	—	302.9
2022	Purdue	7.4	0.470	-0.18	237.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.