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Purdue Boilermakers

Big Ten·1-1·
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Elo
1318#113
SP+
1.2#68
FPI
-1.6
AP
NR
Next@ UCLA · Wk 3Win prob 30%Model +8.5
Talent #55 (698.3)Recruiting class #5548% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Purdue

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Purdue looks nothing like the team that went 2-10

Matchup · 6d ago

Purdue Never Fixed Its Red Zone. It Just Stopped Visiting

Matchup · Sep 5

Roster · 120 players

FR 37SO 26JR 35SR 22
#PlayerPosClHtWt
1Evans ChubaQBSO6'4"220
7Garyt OdomQBFR6'2"195
14Corin BerryQBFR6'3"200
15Ryan BrowneQBJR6'4"220
18Bennett MeredithQBSR6'3"200
2Fame IjeboiRBSO6'0"210
4Jerrick GibsonRBSO5'10"215
20Travis Terrell Jr.RBJR5'9"170
22Antonio HarrisRBJR6'1"215
24Izaiah WrightRBFR5'11"215
31Carter HolsworthRBSO6'0"218
0Jaylan HornsbyWRSO6'3"215
3Xavier TownsendWRSR5'11"195
5Chauncey MagwoodWRSR6'0"200
8De'Nylon MorrissetteWRSR6'1"205
9Jalil HallWRFR6'4"210
10Jesse WatsonWRSO5'9"175
11Tra'Mar HarrisWRSO6'1"200
12Corey SmithWRJR6'1"190
13Ricky Sampson Jr.WRJR6'4"210
17Bisi OwensWRSR6'4"215
19Asaad WaseemWRJR5'11"175
33Quinn RosenkranzWRFR5'8"175
80Brandon KinseyWRFR6'1"200
83Andrew AdkisonWRJR6'0"205
84Nolan BuckmanWRJR5'11"195
88Jojo JohnsonWRFR6'4"180
6Ar'mari TownsTEFR6'6"225
16Kylan FoxTEJR6'4"235
41Jon GrimmettTEFR6'5"235
43Jackson BerrymanTESO6'8"260
81George BurhennTEJR6'5"245
85Luca PuccinelliTESO6'6"265
87Cooper McCutchanTEFR6'4"245
94Luke ShorterTEFR6'7"250
50Boaz StanleyOLSR6'4"315
51Mason VicariOLJR6'4"300
52Rocco DalyOLSO6'0"275
54Hayden TimosciekOLSR6'8"280
55Marc Nave Jr.OLSO6'4"355
56Marques EasleyOLSO6'6"320
57Tom EwingOLJR6'2"300
58James Williams Jr.OLFR6'3"295
59Micah BanuelosOLJR6'2"315
65Brock BrownfieldOLFR6'4"280
68Nuku MafiOLSO6'4"330
70Max ParrottOLSO6'5"315
71Terrell Berryhill Jr.OLFR6'5"275
72Jude McCoskeyOLSR6'8"320
73Makai SainaOLSO6'4"300
75Rico SchrieberOLFR6'8"330
76Ethan TrentOLJR6'2"300
77Jatavius ShiversOLJR6'6"330
78Sankeerth VeluriOLFR6'5"305
79Joey TanonaOLSR6'6"310
8CJ MaddenDESR6'4"270
11Keyshawn BurgosDESR6'5"270
18Elo ModozieDESR6'4"250
19Landon BrooksDEFR6'6"265
23Trey SmithDEJR6'4"265
31Finn GoodmanDEFR6'4"245
33Jeremy LewisDEJR6'4"255
41Mason AlnuttDEFR6'4"260
45Katrell WebbDEFR6'2"245
58Breeon IshmailDEJR6'4"265
84Maximilian CarmicleDEFR6'8"255
91Aiden SoleckiDEFR6'5"265
93Sam GoellnerDESO6'3"250
9TJ LindseyDLSO6'3"310
40Ian JeffriesDLJR6'4"303
44Kobe CherryDLFR6'5"310
90Elijah St. JohnDLSR6'2"300
92Curt NealDLSR6'0"310
94Rodney LoraDLJR6'3"310
96Jordan CreeDLSR6'1"300
97Wisdom SimmsDLSR6'4"320
98Drake CarlsonDLJR6'3"302
99Josiah HopeDLFR6'3"300
0Jojo HaydenLBJR6'2"245
5Charles CorreaLBJR6'3"230
16Anthony SpecaLBJR6'2"230
20Winston BerglundLBJR6'2"230
25Hudson MillerLBSR6'0"235
27Owen DavisLBJR6'3"230
30Parker MeeseLBFR6'2"235
42Brayden SweeneyLBFR6'2"230
47Tre MooreLBSR6'5"225
51Jaxon OttLBFR6'4"240
1Smiley BradfordDBJR6'0"195
2Jaden ManghamDBSR6'2"195
3Jett GoldsberryDBFR6'0"205
4Hudauri HinesDBJR6'1"200
6Mister ClarkDBJR6'0"190
7Don SaundersDBSR6'4"197
10Ta'Vari HamptonDBSO6'0"185
12Ryan TurnerDBSR6'0"195
13John SlaughterDBSR6'2"200
14Emoni SmithDBFR6'1"190
15Vi'Naz CobbDBSO6'1"200
17Traveon WrightDBJR6'0"195
21Justin DensonDBSO6'2"200
22Maxwell BarbeeDBFR6'2"195
24Raderrion DanielsDBFR6'1"185
26Dax NolesDBSO6'0"205
28Dana GreenhowDBFR6'0"185
29Dee NewsomeDBJR6'3"185
32D'mon MarableDBJR6'0"205
35DJ GreeneDBFR6'3"200
36Kaleb RichmondDBJR5'11"195
38Zyntreacs OteyDBFR5'11"185
39Isaiah NeedamDBSO6'0"195
47Braden BrownDBFR6'1"195
48Donivan TaylorDBFR5'8"185
26Jack WeeterPKJR5'11"180
45Seth TurnerPKJR6'1"205
92Jacobo Echeverria LozanoPKFR5'10"170
42Dylan DrennanPSO6'2"205
95Sam DubwigPSO6'4"215
46Luke RaabLSSO6'2"230
89Luke KlareLSSO6'6"235

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
40.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
28.5
scoring defense
Differential
+11.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
489.0#28
Yards / play
6.3#59
Passing yards / game
337.5#12
Rushing yards / game
151.5#84
First downs / game
28.5#9
3rd down %
52.0%#26
4th down %
50.0%#70
Time of possession
34:47#16
Defense
Yards allowed / game
347.5#83
Yards / play allowed
6.1#114
Pass yards allowed / game
221.5#90
Rush yards allowed / game
126.0#77
3rd down % allowed
39.1%#85
Sacks
5#38
Tackles for loss
14#29
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#41
Takeaways
1#109
Giveaways
0#1
Penalties / game
8.5#114
Penalty yards / game
67.5#107

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Purdue is in year 2 under Barry Odom, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd on early downs defensively, and they are 126th at shutting down the ground game.

On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −40.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Purdue has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Defensefirst and second down
    #132
    projected
  • Defensemoving the ball on the ground
    #126
    projected
  • Defensestaying on schedule through the air
    #121
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
3.9 – 8.1
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
2.9
of 10 games
Bowl odds
13%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
55%
vs Wisconsin
Toughest
2%
vs Indiana

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 4-8 (28%)Bowl eligible 13% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBRyan Browne
+43.4 EPA
WRChauncey Magwood, De'Nylon Morrissette +5
+42.1 EPA
RBJerrick Gibson, Fame Ijeboi +1
+11.2 EPA
TEGeorge Burhenn, Luca Puccinelli +1
+4.3 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBRyan Browne
~$1.1M
EPA +43.40.557/play78 snaps
RBFame Ijeboi
~$260K
EPA +13.10.280/play47 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3580th#29
Def0.2118th#114
Explosiveness
Off1.1731st#96
Def1.3625th#104
Field position
Off73.078th#31
Def73.636th#89
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.1723rd#106
Def4.0024th#105
Turnovers
Won 1Lost 0
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.5984th#23
Off · rush
0.1244th#78

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1447th#74
Def0.1524th#105
Passing
Off0.5883rd#24
Def0.2539th#85

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.06#71
2nd-level / open-field
0.94 / 0.78
Power / stuff (off)
71.4% / 17.5%
Havoc — total (def)
17.9%#50
Havoc — front 7 / DB
14.5% / 3.4%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.29
Def0.02
Pass downs
Off0.54
Def0.54

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.25#250.41#350.71#43
Defense-0.04#750.17#800.64#108

Elo Trajectory

Indiana StateFinal
Elo rating 1318 → 1326+8 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.3374th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1820th
  • Offense success rate50%74th
  • Defense success rate allowed40%43rd

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs54%74th
  • Offense success — passing downs37%69th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs38%73rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs44%4th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.127th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.81st
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9734th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.048th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.265th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.472nd
  • Offense highlight yards0.6929th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.320th
  • Offense power success0.8065th
  • Defense power success allowed0.7931st
  • Offense stuff rate0.1661st
  • Defense stuff rate0.2575th

Third down

  • Third down conversion50%77th
  • Third down distance faced6.080th
  • Third down conversion allowed41%36th
  • Third down distance forced9.496th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.0033rd
  • Net success rate — second half0.1677th

Drives

  • Points per drive3.888th
  • Points per drive allowed4.111th
  • Average starting field position3276th
  • Opponent starting field position3418th
  • Available yards gained69%89th
  • Available yards allowed76%7th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive89%70th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
  • Points per scoring opportunity4.387th
  • Points allowed per opportunity4.118th
  • Three-and-out rate11%88th
  • Three-and-outs forced11%17th

Roster

  • Returning usage49%57th
  • Returning EPA11253rd
  • Team talent composite69861st
  • Recruiting class rank55.061st
  • Recruiting class points20361st

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.350#29 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.582#24
Rush EPA/play
+0.138#74
Explosiveness
1.171#96
Pts/opportunity
3.17#106
Success rate
49.6%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.444 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.210#114 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
17.9%#50
Front-7 havoc
14.5%
DB havoc
3.4%
Big play rate allowed
1.361#104
Success rate allowed
41.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

40.0 PPG offense, 28.5 allowed — +11.5 margin/game
Points per game
40.0
Points allowed/game
28.5
Scoring margin/game
+11.5
Turnover margin
+1won 1 · lost 0
Production returning
48%
Talent rank (247)
#55

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE80thEXPLOSIVENESS31thFINISHING23thFIELD POS78thDEFENSE18thHAVOC64th50th100th
Offense
80th
Explosiveness
31th
Finishing
23th
Field Pos
78th
Defense
18th
Havoc
64th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+3.0
#59
Offense
+5.8
#33
Defense
+2.8
#89
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive3.784.11
Starting field positionown 32.0own 34.4
Available yards69.4%76.4%
Scoring opportunities88.9%100.0%
Points per opportunity4.254.11
Three-and-out rate11.1%11.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
55.9%
Expected, given the spots
56.6%
Over expected
-0.7
Fourth down vs peers
-19
Fourth down vs the model
-40
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Purdue is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Purdue in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Ole MissSP+ +13.3
Off EPA/play +0.323Def EPA/play +0.239Elo 1837
Match
98%
IllinoisSP+ +7.5
Off EPA/play +0.310Def EPA/play +0.245Elo 1595
Match
97%
MemphisSP+ +2.1
Off EPA/play +0.297Def EPA/play +0.229Elo 1566
Match
96%
North TexasSP+ -13.2
Off EPA/play +0.307Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1590
Match
96%
NC StateSP+ -0.7
Off EPA/play +0.385Def EPA/play +0.159Elo 1509
Match
96%
Boise StateSP+ +5.2
Off EPA/play +0.296Def EPA/play +0.182Elo 1569
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -15.4, #103 of 1282016: -20.6, #119 of 1282017: +4.1, #54 of 1302018: +1.3, #56 of 1302019: -8.0, #93 of 1302020: -4.1, #81 of 1242021: +9.4, #44 of 1302022: +4.9, #47 of 1312023: -2.3, #74 of 1332024: -18.9, #121 of 1342025: -9.5, #93 of 1362026: +3.0, #59 of 138
20152026
Now +3.0 · #59 of 138Best +9.4 in 2021Worst -20.6 in 2016

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.5-0.5
20252-100-9
17%
3.6-1.6
20241-110-9
8%
2.2-1.2
20234-83-6
33%
5.2-1.2
20228-66-4
57%
6.5+1.5
20219-46-3
69%
6.2+2.8
20202-42-4
33%
1.2+0.8
20194-83-6
33%
4.4-0.4
20186-75-4
46%
6.8-0.8
20177-64-5
54%
7.4-0.4

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 3.3-8.7.

down 0.3 points since preseason.

  • The Big Ten takes 2.71 bids in an average season, and four or more in 18%.

Purdue’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk9at Penn State0.4
  • wk11at Iowa0.3
  • wk3at UCLA0.3
  • wk7vs Washington0.2
  • wk10vs Maryland0.2
  • wk5at Illinois0.1

Who to root for

Games Purdue is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk6Maryland over Ohio State0.1
  • wk9Texas State over Boise State0.1
  • wk4App State over NC State0.1
  • wk10UL Monroe over Arkansas State0.1
  • wk11Northwestern over Ohio State0.1
  • wk13Buffalo over Akron0.1
The full playoff picture →

Big Ten

0-0 in league play, projected 2.2-6.817 of 18 by title odds
0.0%
Wins the Big Ten
0.1%
Reaches the title game

The Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →

If not the playoff, then

10.0%
Bowl eligible
9.8%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
90%
Season over in November

Purdue is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • LA Bowl1.9%
  • GameAbove Sports Bowl1.7%
  • Rate Bowl1.2%
  • Xbox Bowl1.1%
  • Pinstripe Bowl0.8%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl0.6%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.