#45A.J. Ouellette

RB·Ohio·20184.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

A.J. Ouellette is a Featured Back for Ohio. A.J.'s 2018 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 216 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So A.J. Ouellette's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1306 Rush yards12 Rush TD213 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

21 Receptions212 Rec yards2 Rec TD10.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency70
Volume77
Explosiveness62
Consistency61
Receiving48

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.63 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.92 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Ball State (SP+ -19).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsHoward	W38-32	—	17	59	3.5	0	3	26	0	-0.04
3	@Virginia	L31-45	7.1	14	34	2.4	0	2	9	0	-0.16
4	@Cincinnati	L30-34	5.4	21	71	3.4	1	1	6	0	0.06
5	vsMassachusetts	W58-42	-16.1	12	70	5.8	1	1	14	1	0.23
6	@Kent State	W27-26	-20.4	18	72	4.0	2	3	32	0	0.18
7	@Northern Illinois	L21-24	-2.7	11	16	1.5	1	—	—	—	-0.48
8	vsBowling Green	W49-14	-22.0	14	81	5.8	0	1	12	0	0.32
9	vsBall State	W52-14	-18.9	13	135	10.4	2	2	18	0	0.92
10	@Western Michigan	W59-14	-10.7	8	71	8.9	1	—	—	—	0.45
11	@Miami (OH)	L28-30	-0.7	15	168	11.2	0	3	29	0	0.48
12	vsBuffalo	W52-17	-1.1	26	196	7.5	2	2	16	1	0.61
13	vsAkron	W49-28	-19.3	15	169	11.3	2	1	17	0	0.77
1	vsSan Diego State	W27-0	6.0	29	164	5.7	0	2	33	0	0.33

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.9%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

39.5%

Standard downs

30.3%

Passing downs

17.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.83 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.