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Hurricanes at Predators
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Nashville Predators
3
Final/OTTV NBCSN, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Nashville Predators 4-3 in overtime, Sebastian Aho scoring at 1:06. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 1:06 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were CAR 31, NSH 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.5 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jaccob Slavin (2 A), 2. Juuse Saros (27 saves, .871), 3. Ryan Johansen (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Slavin2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros27 saves, .871
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Johansen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR191511611431
NSHNSH1112100501327

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    N. Cousins(2)
    E. Haula (3), B. Harpur (1)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:44
  2. CAR
    B. McGinn(3)
    M. Necas (3)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:21

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Granlund(2)
    R. Ellis (4)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:13
  2. NSH
    R. Johansen(3)PPG
    R. Josi (4), M. Granlund (3)
    deflectedxG 0.19win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    7:32
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(4)PPG
    D. Hamilton (3)
    deflectedxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    13:34

3rd period

  1. CAR
    D. Hamilton(1)
    J. Slavin (2), B. McGinn (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +35 pts
    3-3
    13:59

Overtime

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(5)
    J. Slavin (3)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +52 pts
    4-3
    1:06

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:52CARAndrei Svechnikov · Trippingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

2nd

  • 4:42NSHMikael Granlund · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 5:37CARDougie Hamilton · Interferencedrawn by Brad Richardson2 min
  • 7:18CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min
  • 11:49NSHMatt Benning · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 18:38CARBrady Skjei · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

3rd

  • 3:02NSHRyan Ellis · Slashingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCAR goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, OT 1:06 — CAR 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.22R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.22R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.19Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.14T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.10A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.09E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.09M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.09M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.08N. Cousins · Goal · xG 0.08N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.08R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.07M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.06C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.06M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.06M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.05L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.04E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01B. Richardson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.00A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.00B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.00A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNSH
2.24 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.83 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR44%56%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 2.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
27
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
32
Hits
28
11
Blocked shots
20
16
Giveaways
18
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD022+320.05120—25:42
22B. PesceD000-240.15020—22:36
19D. HamiltonD112+310.13112—22:00
76B. SkjeiD000-220.06212—21:55
88M. NecasC011000.0211010020:04
20S. AhoC202+240.461024019:49
16V. TrocheckC000010.114104717:37
86T. TeravainenC000+210.0400010017:20
11J. StaalC000-120.131005317:13
37A. SvechnikovR000020.21302—16:48
58J. HakanpääD000020.07230—15:30
13W. FoegeleL000-120.1700010015:20
23B. McGinnL112+220.12500—15:03
48J. MartinookL000010.01600—12:29
24J. BeanD000000.02000—10:14
71J. FastR000-110.16000—09:48
21N. NiederreiterR000000.00300—09:16
78S. LorentzC000040.292001108:51
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(W)27243.8892.50-0.5061:06

Series

CAR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).