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Hurricanes at Predators
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Nashville Predators
▸5
Final/2OTTV USA, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-4 in double overtime, Matt Duchene scoring at 14:54. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 14:54 of the second overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.7 to 3.3; shots on goal were CAR 56, NSH 54. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 49 of 54 (.907); Juuse Saros stopped 52 of 56 (.929), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (1 G), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 3. Juuse Saros (52 saves, .929).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Duchene1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros52 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOT2OTT
CARCAR1921611001308456
NSHNSH211113110010110554

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(1)
    T. Jeannot (1), C. Sissons (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:35
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:44
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(2)
    M. Ekholm (1), J. Saros (1)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    19:35

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(3)
    W. Foegele (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:31
  2. CAR
    V. Trocheck(1)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (2), S. Aho (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    12:46
  3. NSH
    M. Granlund(1)PPG
    E. Haula (1), R. Josi (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    14:42

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(1)
    R. Ellis (2), F. Forsberg (1)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +27 pts
    3-4
    5:01
  2. CAR
    B. Pesce(1)
    T. Teravainen (1), S. Aho (2)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +39 pts
    4-4
    16:39

2OT overtime

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(1)
    R. Josi (2), A. Carrier (2)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +48 pts
    4-5
    14:54

Penalties

CAR 14 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

2nd

  • 0:23CARSteven Lorentz · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 4:08CARJani Hakanpää · Hookingdrawn by Eeli Tolvanen2 min
  • 10:15NSHMattias Ekholm · Slashingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 12:33NSHMattias Ekholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min
  • 13:35CARWarren Foegele · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:05CARJordan Staal · Trippingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

3rd

  • 2:30CARJake Bean · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 6:30CARSebastian Aho · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 13:41NSHTanner Jeannot · Cross checkingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min

2OT

  • 11:40CARMaxime Lajoie · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCAR goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 2OT 14:54 — NSH 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.39R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.21F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.21M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.17M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.17M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.16R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.15E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.15M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.15E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.14E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.13E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.12L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.12L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.12A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.10R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.09L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.09C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.09M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.07R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.06C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.06M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.06E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.05N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.04E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.04E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.02L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.02E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.01E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.01M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 4.7 xG · 81 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNSH
3.34 G
All situations
5 G4.7
2.93 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.31 G
Power play
1 G1.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 152 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR29%71%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.20 – 4.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNSH
56
Shots on goal
54
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/3
Power play
1/7
14
Penalty minutes
6
32
Hits
33
21
Blocked shots
20
9
Giveaways
26
4
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22B. PesceD101020.11200—39:27
76B. SkjeiD000-130.10130—37:59
19D. HamiltonD000070.13120—36:56
11J. StaalC101040.282126029:33
20S. AhoC123+170.392124728:32
24J. BeanD000020.09012—27:19
58J. HakanpääD000-130.16702—27:13
86T. TeravainenC011+240.19100026:28
16V. TrocheckC101-210.121005224:35
37A. SvechnikovR011+260.68100—23:31
88M. NecasC000-320.080207523:13
71J. FastR000+130.43030—22:06
13W. FoegeleL011+110.05322—20:26
48J. MartinookL000-120.0431010020:16
23B. McGinnL000040.23210—19:51
21N. NiederreiterR000-320.18300—19:39
78S. LorentzC000-100.002322917:25
42M. LajoieD000030.04112—16:54
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(L)54495.9074.72-0.2894:54

Series

CAR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).