Wild at Coyotes 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸4

Utah Mammoth

FinalTV BSAZX, BSWI+·Gila River Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Utah Mammoth 4-1. The Coyotes scored first; the Wild answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marcus Foligno's goal at 4:32 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Coyotes, 2.7 to 1.9; shots on goal were MIN 23, ARI 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 39 of 40 (.975), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (39 saves, .975), 2. Kevin Fiala (1 G), 3. Christian Dvorak (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. Talbot39 saves, .975
★★
K. Fiala1 G
★★★
C. Dvorak1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	09	17	37	423
ARI	114	017	09	140

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

C. Dvorak(13)PPG
L. Pederson (1), P. Kessel (19)
wristxG 0.10win prob +10 pts
0-1
7:38

2nd period

K. Fiala(16)
N. Sturm (5), I. Cole (5)
backhandxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
1-1
2:58

3rd period

M. Foligno(8)
J. Eriksson Ek (9), J. Greenway (21)
wristxG 0.12win prob +27 pts
2-1
4:32
K. Kaprizov(19)
M. Zuccarello (18)
wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +7 pts
3-1
18:20
N. Sturm(7)EN
Unassisted
wristxG 0.63
4-1
19:48

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

6:31Carson Soucy · Trippingdrawn by Dryden Hunt2 min

2nd

5:58Kevin Fiala · Trippingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min
17:00Niklas Hjalmarsson · Trippingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ARI

Biggest swing: Marcus Foligno, 3rd 4:32 — MIN 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.7 xG · 56 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 1.9 xG · 31 att ARI

1 G · 2.7 xG · 56 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.93 G
All situations: 1 G2.7; 1.23 G
Even strength: 0 G1.9; 0.10 G
Power play: 1 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

23%77%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.25 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 40; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 30
Hits: 33; 19
Blocked shots: 5; 8
Giveaways: 7; 0
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
24M. DumbaD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	23:07
25J. BrodinD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	2	2	0	—	23:02
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	1	1	0	—	21:17
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	2	6	0	—	21:01
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	17:01
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	31	16:35
22K. FialaL	1	0	1	+1	5	0.23	0	0	2	—	16:28
97K. KaprizovL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.27	4	0	0	—	16:05
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	1	1	+2	1	0.01	2	1	0	50	15:54
90M. JohanssonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	15:42
28I. ColeD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	2	2	0	—	15:09
17M. FolignoL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.24	5	2	0	—	15:07
21C. SoucyD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.02	1	0	2	—	14:57
49V. RaskC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	58	14:53
18J. GreenwayL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	14:35
13N. BoninoC	0	0	0	+2	1	0.06	1	0	0	64	13:30
7N. SturmC	1	1	2	+2	1	0.63	1	1	0	33	12:48
11Z. PariseL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.22	1	0	0	—	09:42

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33C. Talbot(W)	40	39	1	.975	2.70	+1.70	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Utah Mammoth

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score