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Flames at Oilers
NHL

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Edmonton Oilers
▸3
FinalTV ESPN+, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 3-2. The Flames scored first; the Oilers answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 7:01 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 59% to 80%. Expected goals were close — CGY 2.2, EDM 2.4; shots on goal were CGY 26, EDM 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.6 goals below expected; Mike Smith stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Leon Draisaitl (2 A), 2. Michael Stone (1 G), 3. Kailer Yamamoto (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Stone1 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    K. Yamamoto1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY1811206226
EDMEDM0142615325

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Stone(1)
    A. Mangiapane (9), M. Lucic (8)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:23

2nd period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(12)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (36)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    1:19
  2. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(10)
    S. Monahan (16), S. Bennett (4)
    backhandxG 0.30win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    5:25
  3. EDM
    D. Kahun(6)
    K. Yamamoto (10), E. Bear (4)
    slapxG 0.24win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    11:29

3rd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(22)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (37)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    7:01

Penalties

CGY 12 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:22CGYRasmus Andersson · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 1:06CGYChris Tanev · Trippingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 2:14EDMAdam Larsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min
  • 3:15CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min
  • 11:46EDMLeon Draisaitl · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 11:46CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 20:00EDMZack Kassian · Boardingdrawn by Joakim Nordstrom2 min

3rd

  • 6:57CGYNoah Hanifin · Interferencedrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 14:47CGYSean Monahan · Cross checkingdrawn by Dominik Kahun2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalCGY goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 3rd 7:01 — EDM 59% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Kahun · Goal · xG 0.24K. Yamamoto · Missed · xG 0.20L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.16R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.16L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.15C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.14L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.13C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.13Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.12D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.10C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.10C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.09J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.07J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.06R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.05J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.04D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.03J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.03K. Russell · On goal · xG 0.02G. Haas · On goal · xG 0.02A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.02A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.01A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.01L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.01
EDM3 G · 2.4 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsEDM
2.22 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.32 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.90 G
Power play
2 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY46%54%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsEDM
26
Shots on goal
25
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/2
Power play
2/5
12
Penalty minutes
6
39
Hits
22
14
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
17
8
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD000030.11120—24:02
55N. HanifinD000050.07112—22:02
4R. AnderssonD000020.10322—20:53
8C. TanevD000+120.02042—20:17
28E. LindholmC000-130.174004119:36
13J. GaudreauL000010.39100—17:32
23S. MonahanC011+110.173126417:16
26M. StoneD101020.03000—17:16
19M. TkachukL101+110.30404—15:55
88A. MangiapaneL011+110.17300—14:42
93S. BennettC011+200.0012010014:23
6J. VälimäkiD000+100.01010—14:04
24B. RitchieR000020.11600—13:42
20J. NordstromC000010.18610013:14
17M. LucicL011020.273005013:10
10D. RyanC000000.080005712:41
29D. DubeC000-100.00200011:31
27J. LeivoL000000.01100—11:23
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)25223.8802.39-0.6158:04

Season series

EDM leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).