Oilers at Flames 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

▸2

Calgary Flames

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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 2-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gaetan Haas's goal at 17:55 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 70% to 87%. Expected goals were close — EDM 2.1, CGY 1.9; shots on goal were EDM 25, CGY 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.9 goals saved above expected; David Rittich stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. David Rittich (23 saves, .920), 2. Adam Larsson, 3. Rasmus Andersson (1 G).

Three stars

★
D. Rittich23 saves, .920
★★
A. Larsson
★★★
R. Andersson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	18	112	05	225
CGY	010	16	05	121

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Puljujarvi(5)
T. Barrie (12), D. Nurse (8)
wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
1-0
5:41

2nd period

G. Haas(1)
J. Neal (2), A. Chiasson (2)
wristxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
2-0
17:55
R. Andersson(3)
J. Gaudreau (8), M. Giordano (7)
wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
2-1
18:40

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

16:54Connor McDavid · Holdingdrawn by Mark Giordano2 min
18:04Milan Lucic · Trippingdrawn by Josh Archibald2 min

2nd

8:26Kailer Yamamoto · Holdingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
11:50Matthew Tkachuk · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

3rd

4:51Alex Chiasson · Elbowingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Gaetan Haas, 2nd 17:55 — EDM 70% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.9 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.1 xG · 35 att CGY

1 G · 1.9 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.12 G
All situations: 1 G1.9; 1.92 G
Even strength: 1 G1.2; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

54%46%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 1.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 21; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 19
Hits: 12; 16
Blocked shots: 8; 17
Giveaways: 26; 9
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
25D. NurseD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.03	1	4	0	—	30:01
22T. BarrieD	0	1	1	0	2	0.16	1	0	0	—	25:26
6A. LarssonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	3	1	0	—	24:10
97C. McDavidC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.26	0	0	2	25	21:38
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	0	21:34
29L. DraisaitlC	0	0	0	0	2	0.32	0	0	0	54	20:17
4K. RussellD	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	0	3	0	—	20:00
56K. YamamotoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	2	—	15:27
13J. PuljujarviR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.15	2	2	0	—	14:23
39A. ChiassonR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	1	0	2	—	13:26
15J. ArchibaldR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.35	0	0	0	—	13:03
91G. HaasC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.05	2	1	0	40	12:54
63T. EnnisR	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	0	0	—	12:53
16J. KhairaL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.22	3	0	0	60	11:42
18J. NealL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.08	1	0	0	—	11:14
20S. KoekkoekD	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	1	2	0	—	09:16
21D. KahunC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	0	0	0	0	08:32
75E. BouchardD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	0	0	—	08:23

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41M. Smith(W)	21	20	1	.952	1.86	+0.86	59:41

Season series

EDM leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score