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Stars at Red Wings
NHL

Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
FinalTV FS-D, FS-SW·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Dallas Stars 3-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Robby Fabbri's goal at 6:36 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.7, DET 2.7; shots on goal were DAL 40, DET 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.8 goals below expected; Jonathan Bernier stopped 22 of 22 (1.000), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robby Fabbri (3 G), 2. Roope Hintz (1 G), 3. Jonathan Bernier (22 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    R. Fabbri3 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz1 G
  3. ★★★
    DET
    J. Bernier22 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL01408218240
DETDET1417110321

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    R. Fabbri(7)
    A. Mantha (7), T. Stecher (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    14:00

2nd period

  1. DET
    R. Fabbri(8)
    M. Staal (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:36

3rd period

  1. DET
    R. Fabbri(9)
    D. Larkin (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +4 pts
    0-3
    9:05
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(8)
    D. Gurianov (10), J. Hanley (2)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +3 pts
    1-3
    9:30
  3. DAL
    J. Dickinson(5)
    J. Robertson (12), J. Klingberg (13)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +5 pts
    2-3
    18:40

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·DET 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:38DETMarc Staal · Holding the stickdrawn by Ty Dellandrea2 min
  • 13:00DALTy Dellandrea · Interferencedrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 13:00DETVladislav Namestnikov · Embellishmentdrawn by Ty Dellandrea2 min

2nd

  • 16:33DETTroy Stecher · High stickingdrawn by Alexander Radulov2 min

3rd

  • 5:50DETChristian Djoos · Holdingdrawn by Joel Hanley2 min
  • 12:49DALEsa Lindell · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Mantha2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalDAL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Robby Fabbri, 2nd 6:36 — DET 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.54D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.24M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.18F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.17A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.15R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.13R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.13R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.12A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.09R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.09F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.07L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.07L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.07F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.06R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.06S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.05F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.05D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.05D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.03F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.02T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.02S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.02D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.02P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.02S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.02F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gagner · Missed · xG 0.01
DET3 G · 2.7 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsDET
2.72 G
All situations
3 G2.7
1.92 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL60%40%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsDET
40
Shots on goal
21
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
28
Hits
16
10
Blocked shots
6
2
Giveaways
3
1
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000040.19310—26:42
3J. KlingbergD011-150.39200—24:53
23E. LindellD000-230.08422—21:53
14J. BennL000-250.32310—21:26
2J. OleksiakD000-100.00200—19:52
47A. RadulovR000-120.13000—19:45
16J. PavelskiC000-120.220005318:59
21J. RobertsonL011+230.40010—18:53
12R. FaksaC000+120.090007517:05
24R. HintzC101030.291103816:22
34D. GurianovR011+160.42300—14:37
18J. DickinsonC101030.192106714:31
5A. SekeraD000+110.01100—12:54
44J. HanleyD011+110.02200—11:50
10T. DellandreaC000000.00102010:56
25J. KivirantaL000000.00320—10:43
15B. ComeauL000000.00110—10:26
64T. KeroC000-100.00000006:41
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)21183.8572.19-0.8157:32

Season series

DAL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).