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St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV FS-MW, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the San Jose Sharks 7-6. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marco Scandella's goal at 7:14 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Sharks, 3.6 to 2.4; shots on goal were STL 31, SJS 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 2.2 goals below expected; Devan Dubnyk stopped 24 of 31 (.774), 4.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A), 2. Timo Meier (2 G, 1 A), 3. Evander Kane (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    SJS
    T. Meier2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    E. Kane2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL1631639731
SJSSJS21222028640

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:17
  2. STL
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    6:08
  3. SJS
    E. Kane(6)PPG
    wristxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    1-2
    10:11

2nd period

  1. STL
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    3:34
  2. SJS
    T. Meier(4)PPG
    snapxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    6:43
  3. STL
    slapxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    3-3
    7:28
  4. SJS
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.03win prob +19 pts
    3-4
    10:34
  5. STL
    J. Kyrou (11), T. Krug (11)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +22 pts
    4-4
    18:16

3rd period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.20win prob +26 pts
    5-4
    1:18
  2. SJS
    snapxG 0.17win prob +25 pts
    5-5
    2:13
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.24win prob +26 pts
    6-5
    3:20
  4. SJS
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +28 pts
    6-6
    6:31
  5. STL
    wristxG 0.17win prob +30 pts
    7-6
    7:14

Penalties

STL 14 PIM·SJS 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:28STLDavid Perron · Holdingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min

2nd

  • 1:07STLZachary Sanford · Trippingdrawn by Logan Couture2 min
  • 5:53STLSammy Blais · Cross checkingdrawn by John Leonard2 min
  • 10:34STLJordan Binnington · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min
  • 11:36STLNiko Mikkola · Delaying game smothering puck2 min
  • 11:44SJSErik Karlsson · Hookingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 20:00STLJustin Faulk · Trippingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min

3rd

  • 10:05SJSPatrick Marleau · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min
  • 19:57SJSEvander Kane · Roughingdrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min
  • 19:57STLZachary Sanford · Roughingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalSTL goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Marco Scandella, 3rd 7:14 — STL 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Donato · Missed · xG 0.28K. Labanc · Goal · xG 0.17S. Chmelevski · On goal · xG 0.14E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.14R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.12R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.12R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.12P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.12E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.11D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.11R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.10K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.10R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.09E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.08J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.08T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.08R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.08B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.08R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.07R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.07B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.07E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06L. Couture · Goal · xG 0.06B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.06N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.06R. Donato · Missed · xG 0.06T. Meier · Goal · xG 0.06E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.05R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.04T. Meier · Goal · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03L. Couture · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.03M. Vlasic · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.02N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ferraro · Missed · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS6 G · 3.6 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsSJS
2.47 G
All situations
6 G3.6
2.16 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
2 G1.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL31%69%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 3.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsSJS
31
Shots on goal
40
67%
Faceoffs
33%
0/2
Power play
2/6
14
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
19
13
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
8
8
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72J. FaulkD011+130.08212—25:49
6M. ScandellaD213+430.21150—25:28
90R. O'ReillyC112+130.482007723:53
10B. SchennC101-110.053207121:08
70O. SundqvistC011+100.033005021:08
47T. KrugD011+220.06300—20:06
57D. PerronL011020.22012—18:00
29V. DunnD011+220.05100—17:52
26N. WalkerL000-220.062105016:27
12Z. SanfordL112+230.19104—15:20
41R. BortuzzoD000-200.01210—15:02
77N. MikkolaD000-230.32222—15:01
68M. HoffmanC011+210.1210010013:48
9S. BlaisL101+110.07102—13:27
25J. KyrouR011+130.26000—12:13
28M. MacEachernL101+210.20000—07:38
13K. CliffordL000+110.01000—06:51
61J. de la RoseL000+100.00000—01:16
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington19154.7891.77-2.2330:34
35V. Husso(W)21192.9051.82-0.1829:26

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).