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St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth

Final/OTTV FS-A, FS-MW·Gila River Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Utah Mammoth 5-4 in overtime, Mike Hoffman scoring at 1:49. The lead changed hands 4 times. The Blues led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Hoffman's goal at 1:49 of overtime, which took the Blues' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.2 to 2.8; shots on goal were STL 35, ARI 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Ville Husso stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.2 goals below expected; Antti Raanta stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Hoffman (1 G, 1 A), 2. Conor Garland (1 G), 3. Ivan Barbashev (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    M. Hoffman1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ARI
    C. Garland1 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    I. Barbashev1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL2141611312535
ARIARI1161142501436

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:21
  2. STL
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:46
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:22

2nd period

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:27
  2. STL
    wristxG 0.17win prob +18 pts
    3-2
    7:09

3rd period

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.10win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    1:50
  2. ARI
    wristxG 0.14win prob +33 pts
    3-4
    11:23
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.09win prob +36 pts
    4-4
    14:23

Overtime

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.08win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    1:49

Penalties

STL 4 PIM·ARI 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:54ARIJakob Chychrun · High stickingdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min
  • 9:16STLJustin Faulk · Hookingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 10:18ARIPhil Kessel · High stickingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min
  • 13:28STLMike Hoffman · High stickingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalSTL goalFinal: ARI 0%

Biggest swing: Mike Hoffman, OT 1:49 — STL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.25C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.16C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.15N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.15D. Hunt · Goal · xG 0.14L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.12H. Fasching · On goal · xG 0.11C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.11C. Dvorak · Missed · xG 0.11C. Garland · On goal · xG 0.11N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.10C. Garland · Missed · xG 0.09C. Dvorak · Missed · xG 0.09O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.08C. Dvorak · Missed · xG 0.08J. Demers · Missed · xG 0.08C. Garland · On goal · xG 0.07J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.05N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.05C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.05C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.05C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.04B. Hayton · Goal · xG 0.04A. Goligoski · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03C. Garland · Goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Demers · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.02J. Demers · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.01C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Garland · Missed · xG 0.01T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.01C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.00J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.00D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.00I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.00J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.00J. Demers · On goal · xG 0.00
ARI4 G · 2.8 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsARI
3.25 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.45 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL56%44%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.10 – 2.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsARI
35
Shots on goal
36
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
40
6
Blocked shots
20
7
Giveaways
12
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72J. FaulkD000+200.01212—25:10
47T. KrugD011+140.08000—23:38
90R. O'ReillyC011+130.490006623:20
29V. DunnD011050.19000—21:08
57D. PerronL011+120.16000—20:51
55C. ParaykoD000-110.01110—20:50
10B. SchennC000-140.542101518:26
49I. BarbashevL112+230.33200—17:58
70O. SundqvistC011-110.171005017:16
12Z. SanfordL101-240.4810010016:16
4C. GunnarssonD000-110.02210—16:02
25J. KyrouR101010.20000—15:10
68M. HoffmanC112+110.2111210014:50
41R. BortuzzoD000010.02100—13:38
28M. MacEachernL000000.00100—10:25
61J. de la RoseL011010.012106009:21
53A. PoganskiR000000.00200—08:49
13K. CliffordL101+130.25000—08:19
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35V. Husso(W)36324.8892.78-1.2261:49

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).