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New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers

Final/OTTV ESPN+, MSG+·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the New York Islanders 4-3 in overtime, Kevin Hayes scoring at 4:22. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kevin Hayes's goal at 4:22 of overtime, which took the Flyers' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 2.8 to 2.3; shots on goal were NYI 36, PHI 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.2 goals below expected; Brian Elliott stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joel Farabee (3 G), 2. James van Riemsdyk (4 A), 3. Kevin Hayes (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PHI
    J. Farabee3 G
  2. ★★
    PHI
    J. van Riemsdyk4 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    K. Hayes1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NYINYI0131921004336
PHIPHI162120714429

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    18:42

2nd period

  1. NYI
    N. Leddy(1)PPG
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    0:38
  2. PHI
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    2:19
  3. PHI
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    15:52

3rd period

  1. NYI
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    1:03
  2. NYI
    A. Lee (2)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +27 pts
    3-3
    6:27

Overtime

  1. PHI
    K. Hayes(5)PPG
    wristxG 0.12win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    4:22

Penalties

NYI 8 PIM·PHI 12 PIM

1st

  • 2:38PHIIvan Provorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
  • 10:11NYIAdam Pelech · Elbowingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 10:54NYIBrock Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Jakub Voracek2 min
  • 14:26PHIMichael Raffl · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

  • 0:25PHINolan Patrick · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 3:22NYIMathew Barzal · Holdingdrawn by Kevin Hayes2 min
  • 4:51PHITravis Sanheim · Hookingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 8:50PHINolan Patrick · Holdingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

3rd

  • 10:58PHIJustin Braun · Holdingdrawn by Michael Dal Colle2 min

OT

  • 3:40NYIMathew Barzal · High stickingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalNYI goalFinal: PHI 100%

Biggest swing: Kevin Hayes, OT 4:22 — PHI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.23M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.21K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.16K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.14K. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.12J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.12N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.12J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.11K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.11C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.10C. Bunnaman · Missed · xG 0.10C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.10O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.09K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.09J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.08C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.08K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.08I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.08S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.06I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.06O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.06K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.05J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.04N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.04T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.02C. Bunnaman · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.02C. Bunnaman · On goal · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.01J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.01K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01J. Voracek · Missed · xG 0.01C. Bunnaman · Missed · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.00R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.00M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.00J. Braun · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI4 G · 2.8 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsPHI
2.33 G
All situations
4 G2.8
1.32 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI42%58%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsPHI
36
Shots on goal
29
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/6
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
12
19
Hits
15
11
Blocked shots
8
12
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
13M. BarzalC112+240.472047823:37
27A. LeeL011+140.171106723:26
6R. PulockD011+140.11100—22:44
3A. PelechD000+120.04112—22:10
2N. LeddyD101040.10010—22:03
24S. MayfieldD000-140.12110—20:08
7J. EberleR000-200.1900010019:17
12J. BaileyR112+160.43000—18:56
44J. PageauC011+100.031103618:19
29B. NelsonC000-210.080023317:06
8N. DobsonD000-110.07000—16:30
4A. GreeneD000-220.02120—16:29
11A. CzarnikC000010.020105014:12
53C. CizikasC000-100.001004713:24
15C. ClutterbuckR000-100.22310—12:55
17M. MartinL000020.12310—10:51
28M. Dal ColleL000000.07210—08:50
41D. TimashovL000-210.01200—07:13
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(O)29254.8622.76-1.2463:18

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).