UCLA is a one score game away from disaster

Consider UCLA, which went 5-2 in one-score games but 0-5 in all other games. This disparity suggests that their overall record is propped up by close-game variance. On the other hand, Virginia Tech had the opposite experience, going 0-5 in one-score games but 6-2 in all other games, indicating that their record understates their true quality.

The numbers bear this out: UCLA's 5-2 record in one-score games is the equivalent of winning 71% of coin flips, which is extremely unlikely to be sustained over time. In contrast, their 0-5 record in all other games suggests that they are actually a below-average team. Similarly, Virginia Tech's 0-5 record in one-score games is like losing 7 coin flips in a row, which is also unlikely to continue.

• UCLA's record in one-score games is due to luck and will likely regress next year
• Virginia Tech's record in one-score games understates their true quality and will likely improve next year

However, it's also important to acknowledge that clutch quarterback play and kicking can be partly real and won't entirely regress. Some teams may have a genuine advantage in close games due to their quarterback's ability to perform under pressure or their kicker's accuracy. Nonetheless, the overall trend suggests that one-score game records are largely driven by luck.

The practical implication of this is that polls and next year's lines will likely anchor on this year's record, making UCLA a potentially overpriced team and Virginia Tech an underpriced one. By recognizing the role of luck in one-score games, smart fans can gain an edge in their predictions and bets.

Don't anchor on this year's record, look at the underlying quality