Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
The number everyone reaches for is 58-27, UNLV's 31-point win the last time these programs met, in 2022. It is the wrong prior for this one: North Texas went 1…
UAB is a double-digit favorite over the team that beat it 32-6 the last time these two met, and the projection lands at UAB 26, UL Monroe 24, with UAB's win pr…
Two seasons ago in Memphis, the Tigers took this fixture 35-32, and the unit grades say that was earned rather than stolen: Memphis holds the edge in the run g…
Ohio is a two-point home favorite in a game where the widest gap on the field runs against it. Jacksonville State's pass defense against Ohio's passing game is…
Syracuse finished 3-9 last season and California finished 7-6, and Syracuse is still laying three at home. The reason sits in one line of California's defensiv…
The last time these programmes met in South Bend, in 2014, Notre Dame won 48-17. The number this week asks for a good deal more than that, and the reason is no…
Start with the oddity: the single widest edge in this game belongs to the team getting 7.5 points. Arizona's short-yardage and power running grades 2.11 better…
UConn won nine games last season and averaged 35.3 points. Maryland went 4-8 and averaged 23.5. The team with the worse record is a 12.5-point favorite on the…
Washington won the only meeting between these programs, 31-17 at home in 2015 — a clean win, and nothing close to 26.5. Nobody from that afternoon is involved…
Texas State won the last meeting on the road, 43-36, and on last season's ledger it is the better team: #24 in adjusted efficiency against UTSA's #57, six poin…
The market makes Mississippi State a 1.2-point favorite on the road, and Minnesota still projects to win it 32-22 with a 76% chance of winning outright. Missis…
The last time these programs met, Michigan State won 73-14. That was 2014, and it is the wrong reference point for Saturday: both teams finished 4-8 last seaso…
East Carolina is favored on a 9-4 season, 32.7 points a game and home field, and all three of those arguments come from last November. The field-level argument…
The last time these programs met, in 2023 at Kentucky, Alabama won 49-21, and the mechanism that pulled that game apart is the same one shaping a 30-22 project…
Purdue projects to win this 27-26 at home while the market makes Wake Forest a 4.5-point favorite. The disagreement is about how much a 2-10 season should stil…
South Florida's offense has been an explosive-play operation, and Army's defense is the worst possible place to bring it. The big-play matchup runs 3.77 standa…
Temple won by 24 six days ago and still opens as a 23.5-point underdog, which says the number is about Penn State rather than anything Temple did wrong against…
These teams have met once, in 2006 at Georgia, and it ended 48-12. Western Kentucky lost that one by 36, and Georgia grades 36 points better than Western Kentu…
Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech 45-26 in Blacksburg last season, and that is the strongest card the visitors hold walking in. It is also a year old. Virginia T…
Missouri and Kansas have met 111 times since 1901, Missouri leads the series 55-48-8, and 45 percent of those meetings were decided by a single possession. Mis…
Washington State's trouble isn't the scoreboard gap. The down the Cougars have to win to stay on the field, third-and-2 and fourth-and-1, is the down where the…
Oklahoma is favored by six in a game with a 43.2 total, and the reason has little to do with hanging 51 on UTEP. Michigan has to convert in short yardage and p…
Rutgers walks into Chestnut Hill with the biggest edge on the field and is still the underdog. It can hit chunk plays against a Boston College defense that sit…
These programs have met once, in this stadium, and Texas A&M won it 38-17. The projected 39-11 is that afternoon again with a wider gap, and it arrives by the…
