Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NIUTeam statsND
- Q4 0:31NIUKanon Woodill 35 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q3 8:34NDJeremiyah Love 34 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)13–14
- Q2 13:39NIUKanon Woodill 21 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 2:13NIUKanon Woodill 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:35NIUAntario Brown 83 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:28NDRiley Leonard 11 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ND played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NIU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassEthan Hampton 10/19, 198 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAntario Brown 20 CAR, 99 YDS
- RecAntario Brown 2 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRiley Leonard 20/32, 163 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJeremiyah Love 11 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBeaux Collins 5 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,672 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:31NIU +41%
Kanon Woodill 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:24ND +41%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete
- Q3 8:34ND +22%
Jeremiyah Love run for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
- Q4 5:55NIU +19%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the ND 41
- Q4 7:49ND +16%
Jadarian Price run for 7 yds to the ND 32
- Q4 10:39NIU +12%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the NIU 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame?
Northern Illinois 16, Notre Dame 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NIU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 286 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 190 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 16 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 34:38 | Possession | 25:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:47 NIU punt on 4th & 1 at NIU 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31NIUKanon Woodill 35 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q3 8:34NDJeremiyah Love 34 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)13–14
- Q2 13:39NIUKanon Woodill 21 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 2:13NIUKanon Woodill 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:35NIUAntario Brown 83 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Kanon Woodill Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:28NDRiley Leonard 11 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 1888, NIU Elo 1446 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -20.1 (90% to win) — 7.9 points clear of NIU's market line of -28. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #1 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #5 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →| NIU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.6 (#50) | CORE overall | +31.5 (#2) |
| -2 / -7 | offense / defense | +12 / -19 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 3.19 |
| 1.66 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →