Memphis vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsARST
- Q4 0:00MEMKe'Travion Hargrove 17 Yd Run 37–3
- Q3 8:51MEMSeth Henigan 7 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)31–3
- Q2 0:04ARSTDominic Zvada 34 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 3:34MEMTauskie Dove 52 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)24–0
- Q2 7:34MEMDJ Bell 36 Yd Interception Return (Seth Morgan Kick)17–0
- Q2 8:20MEMJoseph Scates 4 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)10–0
- Q1 5:53MEMSeth Morgan 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassSeth Henigan 21/29, 239 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBlake Watson 20 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecTauskie Dove 1 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJ.T. Shrout 12/25, 79 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJa'Quez Cross 9 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecCorey Rucker 3 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 462 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:20MEM +8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Arkansas State?
Memphis 37, Arkansas State 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| MEM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total yards | 230 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 150 | Rushing yards | 64 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/29 | Comp/Att | 22/41 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 3-40 |
| 35:32 | Possession | 24:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:07 MEM punt on 4th & 1 at MEM 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00MEMKe'Travion Hargrove 17 Yd Run 37–3
- Q3 8:51MEMSeth Henigan 7 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)31–3
- Q2 0:04ARSTDominic Zvada 34 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 3:34MEMTauskie Dove 52 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)24–0
- Q2 7:34MEMDJ Bell 36 Yd Interception Return (Seth Morgan Kick)17–0
- Q2 8:20MEMJoseph Scates 4 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Seth Morgan Kick)10–0
- Q1 5:53MEMSeth Morgan 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1071, MEM Elo 1545 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +16.6 (15% to win) — 4.4 points clear of ARST's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 20–8–3 · Memphis has won 5 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| MEM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#51) | CORE overall | -10.4 (#100) |
| +8 / +5 | offense / defense | -3 / +8 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →