#2Chase Brown

RB·Illinois·2022 20211.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chase Brown is a 2-year Featured Back for Illinois. Chase's 2022 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 322 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chase Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

1643 Rush yards10 Rush TD328 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions240 Rec yards3 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Explosiveness40
Consistency16
Receiving39

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency16th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsWyoming	W38-6	-10.8	19	151	7.9	2	3	16	1	-0.03
1	@Indiana	L20-23	-7.1	36	199	5.5	0	1	6	0	-0.03
2	vsVirginia	W24-3	-9.0	20	146	7.3	0	1	3	0	0.22
4	vsChattanooga	W31-0	—	20	108	5.4	1	2	6	0	0.19
5	@Wisconsin	W34-10	8.3	25	129	5.2	1	1	6	0	-0.10
6	vsIowa	W9-6	12.7	31	146	4.7	0	4	17	0	0.02
7	vsMinnesota	W26-14	16.0	41	180	4.4	0	3	53	1	0.26
9	@Nebraska	W26-9	-1.2	32	149	4.7	1	3	13	1	0.11
10	vsMichigan State	L15-23	1.2	33	136	4.1	0	2	21	0	-0.27
11	vsPurdue	L24-31	7.7	23	98	4.3	2	3	32	0	0.05
12	@Michigan	L17-19	32.0	29	140	4.8	2	3	24	0	0.06
13	@Northwestern	W41-3	-13.4	19	61	3.2	1	1	43	0	0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

39.4%

Passing plays

8.5%

Rushing plays

62.4%

Standard downs

46.1%

Passing downs

23.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: 0.13
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.05

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Illinois	2.3	0.280	—	56.3
2022	Illinois	1.4	0.170	-0.11	51.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.