Temple vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 3:04TEMRyquell Armstead 30 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)34–10
- Q4 10:17TEMAaron Boumerhi 42 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 2:18NAVYZach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:22TEMAaron Boumerhi 48 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 5:12NAVYBennett Moehring 23 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q2 13:44TEMKeith Kirkwood 56 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:01TEMVentell Bryant 22 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:43TEMJahad Thomas 15 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassPJ Walker 16/25, 199 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRyquell Armstead 10 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeith Kirkwood 5 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZach Abey 7/13, 104 YDS, 2 INT
- RushZach Abey 14 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamir Tillman 3 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:01TEM +18%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 22 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q1 9:43TEM +18%
Jahad Thomas run for 15 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q2 13:44TEM +13%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 56 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q3 2:18NAVY +8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
- Q4 13:50TEM +8%
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds to the Navy 37
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. Navy?
Temple 34, Navy 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NAVY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Total yards | 306 |
| 199 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 189 | Rushing yards | 168 |
| 18 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 16/25 | Comp/Att | 8/15 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 30:38 | Possession | 29:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:57 NAVY punt on 4th & 1 at NAVY 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:04TEMRyquell Armstead 30 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)34–10
- Q4 10:17TEMAaron Boumerhi 42 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 2:18NAVYZach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:22TEMAaron Boumerhi 48 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 5:12NAVYBennett Moehring 23 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q2 13:44TEMKeith Kirkwood 56 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:01TEMVentell Bryant 22 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:43TEMJahad Thomas 15 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1809, TEM Elo 1712 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -6.3 (67% to win) — 4.8 points clear of NAVY's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #110 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #41 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Navy leads 11–9 · Navy has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| TEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.8 (#40) | CORE overall | +1.0 (#58) |
| +2 / -5 | offense / defense | +13 / +12 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 3.61 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →