#28Kenneth Dixon

RB·Louisiana Tech·2015 20142.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kenneth Dixon is a 2-year Featured Back for Louisiana Tech. Kenneth's 2015 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 221 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenneth Dixon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1070 Rush yards19 Rush TD197 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

34 Receptions467 Rec yards7 Rec TD13.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency43
Volume89
Explosiveness48
Consistency56
Receiving64

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency56th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs North Texas (SP+ -25).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern	W62-15	—	9	106	11.8	1	2	65	1	0.70
2	@Western Kentucky	L38-41	10.8	22	168	7.6	2	5	41	0	0.16
3	@Kansas State	L33-39	2.6	17	81	4.8	0	5	25	0	0.02
4	vsFlorida International	W27-17	-16.6	25	169	6.8	2	1	23	1	0.42
5	vsLouisiana	W43-14	-7.1	22	59	2.7	1	2	-6	0	-0.26
8	vsMiddle Tennessee	W45-16	-4.6	13	63	4.8	3	3	55	1	0.56
9	@Rice	W42-17	-14.6	19	92	4.8	2	1	16	0	0.23
10	vsNorth Texas	W56-13	-25.0	22	195	8.9	6	3	32	0	0.80
12	@UTEP	W17-15	-19.5	19	39	2.1	0	1	22	0	-0.33
13	vsSouthern Miss	L24-58	1.4	8	-4	-0.5	0	5	81	2	-0.07
1	vsArkansas State	W47-28	0.5	21	102	4.9	2	6	113	2	0.51

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.1%

Passing plays

11.0%

Rushing plays

55.4%

Standard downs

34.2%

Passing downs

23.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.83 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Louisiana Tech	3.5	0.340	—	75.8
2015	Louisiana Tech	2.9	0.310	-0.03	62.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.