Western Michigan vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsMICH
- Q4 0:00MICHJJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood 12–13
- Q4 0:35WMUDieter Kelly 33 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q4 10:25WMUDieter Kelly 39 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 0:00WMUDieter Kelly 45 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 5:17WMUDieter Kelly 52 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:40MICHBryce Underwood 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
A rock fight to the end. The quiet edges that won it for Michigan.
Bryce Underwood scored 12 of Michigan's points. Michigan grinds past Western Michigan, 13-12 at Michigan Stadium. Both offenses were throttled, and Michigan found just enough to win it. Bryce Underwood threw for 170 yards on 22 attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 47 yards and one score.
- PassBroc Lowry 15/21, 89 YDS
- RushJalen Buckley 19 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecAveion Chenault 6 REC, 53 YDS
- PassBryce Underwood 12/22, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBryce Underwood 9 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJJ Buchanan 6 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00MICH +100%
JJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood
- Q4 1:44WMU +39%
Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UOM20 (#7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:10WMU +36%
#25 R.Millmore punt 37 yards to the UOM07 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at UOM07
- Q4 10:25WMU +22%
#32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD
- Q3 9:00MICH +15%
Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU10 (#91 J.Lea'ea)
- Q4 9:06MICH +14%
#33 C.Brown punt 47 yards to the WMU28 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU28
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Michigan?
Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| WMU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 221 | Total yards | 276 |
| 89 | Passing yards | 170 |
| 132 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 16 | First downs | 12 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/21 | Comp/Att | 12/23 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 9-80 |
| 40:08 | Possession | 19:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:56 WMU punt on 4th & 3 at MICH 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00MICHJJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood 12–13
- Q4 0:35WMUDieter Kelly 33 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q4 10:25WMUDieter Kelly 39 Yd Field Goal 9–7
- Q2 0:00WMUDieter Kelly 45 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 5:17WMUDieter Kelly 52 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:40MICHBryce Underwood 1 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1690, WMU Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -12.1 (77% to win) — 15.4 points clear of WMU's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 8–0 · Michigan has won 8 straight · 13% have been one-possession games
| WMU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 (#61) | CORE overall | +17.0 (#19) |
| -2 / -5 | offense / defense | +8 / -9 |
| 0.90 | points / drive | 0.78 |
| 0.78 | allowed / drive | 0.90 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 56% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Michigan grinds past Western Michigan in a rock fight, 13-12
A rock fight to the end. The quiet edges that won it for Michigan.
Who got home
Two names to keep: Dillon Moore (0.5 sack, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 4.5 tackles) for Western Michigan and Dominic Nichols (1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs, 6.5 tackles) for Michigan. 3 of Michigan's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 54% it had averaged over the previous 9 seasons.
Where the game was won
Western Michigan had the better field position all night, 21 yards closer per drive, and lost anyway. Michigan produced 5 plays of 15+ yards to Western Michigan's 2, chiefly Bryce Underwood (involved in 3), JJ Buchanan (involved in 2) and Jordan Marshall (involved in 2). Michigan won the game without it.
The plays that turned it
Three snaps account for most of the difference. Broc Lowry's 0-yard attempt to Baylin Brooks that came up short on 4th-and-2 at Q2 14:54. Then Broc Lowry's 16-yard throw to Aveion Chenault on 3rd-and-14 at Q3 00:07. Later, Bryce Underwood's 28-yard throw to JJ Buchanan on 3rd-and-10 at Q4 00:11.
How it unfolded
Michigan struck first through Bryce Underwood, led 7-6 at the half and Michigan got the final points on a late score by JJ Buchanan.
The standouts
Bryce Underwood threw for 170 yards on 22 attempts with one touchdown and ran nine times for 47 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. JJ Buchanan caught six passes for 126 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Jordan Marshall ran 11 times for 44 yards and caught two passes for 17 yards. For Western Michigan, Broc Lowry threw for 89 yards on 21 attempts and ran 15 times for 35 yards — four third-down conversions. Aveion Chenault caught six passes for 53 yards. Dominic Nichols was the disruptive one for Michigan: 1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs, 6.5 tackles.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Michigan won the ugly way, which is its own kind of useful. Western Michigan will rue the points it left out there.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →