Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsVT
- Q4 1:56VTTyler Mason 3 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)45–26
- Q4 4:20VTDonavon Greene 23 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)45–19
- Q4 7:02ODUDevin Roche 15 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)45–13
- Q4 12:06VTKyron Drones 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–13
- Q3 1:49ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 13 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)38–7
- Q3 4:32VTDonavon Greene 10 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)31–7
- Q3 9:54ODURiley Callaghan 50 Yd Field Goal 31–0
- Q2 0:53ODUTre' Brown III 13 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)28–0
- Q2 6:44ODUTrequan Jones 11 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)21–0
- Q2 12:38ODUMaurki James 10 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:30ODUColton Joseph 6 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassColton Joseph 16/22, 276 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTrequan Jones 13 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Cory Thomas 3 REC, 83 YDS
- PassKyron Drones 26/39, 266 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKyron Drones 18 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonavon Greene 5 REC, 77 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:04VT +8%
Ian Brandt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VT 33, Tucker Holloway returns for 8 yds to the VT 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech?
Old Dominion 45, Virginia Tech 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ODU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 526 | Total yards | 433 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 250 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 29 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 12.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 12-113 |
| 29:56 | Possession | 30:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:16 ODU punt on 4th & 1 at ODU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56VTTyler Mason 3 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)45–26
- Q4 4:20VTDonavon Greene 23 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)45–19
- Q4 7:02ODUDevin Roche 15 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)45–13
- Q4 12:06VTKyron Drones 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–13
- Q3 1:49ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 13 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)38–7
- Q3 4:32VTDonavon Greene 10 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)31–7
- Q3 9:54ODURiley Callaghan 50 Yd Field Goal 31–0
- Q2 0:53ODUTre' Brown III 13 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)28–0
- Q2 6:44ODUTrequan Jones 11 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)21–0
- Q2 12:38ODUMaurki James 10 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:30ODUColton Joseph 6 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1502, ODU Elo 1480 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.2 points clear of ODU's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #75 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| ODU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →