Northwestern vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsPSU
- Q4 4:51NUCaleb Komolafe 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)22–21
- Q4 10:50PSUDrew Allar 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)16–21
- Q4 14:08NUJack Olsen 41 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q2 0:03NUJack Olsen 34 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 1:19PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:14NUGriffin Wilde 29 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:40PSUKaytron Allen 11 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)3–7
- Q1 2:51NUJack Olsen 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassPreston Stone 17/26, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaleb Komolafe 19 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGriffin Wilde 7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrew Allar 13/20, 137 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKaytron Allen 16 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevonte Ross 7 REC, 115 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:51NU +49%
Caleb Komolafe run for no gain to the NU 35
- Q4 3:00NU +33%
Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the PSU 28
- Q4 4:51PSU +25%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 22
- Q4 10:50PSU +20%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
- Q4 14:08NU +19%
Jack Olsen 41 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 15:00PSU +17%
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the PSU 8
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Penn State?
Northwestern 22, Penn State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total yards | 274 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 23 | First downs | 13 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/26 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 6-71 |
| 34:46 | Possession | 25:14 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:19 PSU punt on 4th & 8 at NU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:51NUCaleb Komolafe 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)22–21
- Q4 10:50PSUDrew Allar 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)16–21
- Q4 14:08NUJack Olsen 41 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q2 0:03NUJack Olsen 34 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q2 1:19PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)10–14
- Q2 7:14NUGriffin Wilde 29 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:40PSUKaytron Allen 11 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)3–7
- Q1 2:51NUJack Olsen 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 2028, NU Elo 1478 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -24.4 (94% to win) — 3.9 points clear of PSU's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #5 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Penn State leads 16–6 · 27% have been one-possession games
| NU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#67) | CORE overall | +13.0 (#32) |
| -0 / +1 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.96 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →