Nebraska vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsMINN
- Q4 5:14MINNBrady Denaburg 30 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q4 12:32MINNDarius Taylor 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–21
- Q3 2:36MINNLe'Meke Brockington 20 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–14
- Q2 4:25NEBKyle Cunanan 30 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q2 13:20MINNDrake Lindsey 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)3–7
- Q1 0:00NEBKyle Cunanan 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassDylan Raiola 17/25, 177 YDS
- RushEmmett Johnson 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecLuke Lindenmeyer 4 REC, 52 YDS
- PassDrake Lindsey 16/20, 153 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDarius Taylor 24 CAR, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJalen Smith 3 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:36MINN +28%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 20 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q2 13:20MINN +20%
Drake Lindsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q4 12:32MINN +12%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q2 9:53NEB +11%
Tom Weston punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacory Barney Jr. at the NEB 19
- Q4 14:08MINN +10%
Shotgun Lindsey,Drake pass intercepted by Marshall,Andrew at NEB35 QB hurried by Nwaneri,Williams PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (Jones,Donovan) 15 yards from MINN45 to…
- Q3 11:19NEB +8%
Archie Wilson punt for 49 yds
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Minnesota?
Nebraska 6, Minnesota 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NEB | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 213 | Total yards | 339 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 153 |
| 36 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 13 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 16/20 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 28:01 | Possession | 31:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:53 MINN punt on 4th & 1 at MINN 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:14MINNBrady Denaburg 30 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q4 12:32MINNDarius Taylor 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–21
- Q3 2:36MINNLe'Meke Brockington 20 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)6–14
- Q2 4:25NEBKyle Cunanan 30 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q2 13:20MINNDrake Lindsey 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)3–7
- Q1 0:00NEBKyle Cunanan 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1534, NEB Elo 1699 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN +4.2 (40% to win) — 2.8 points clear of MINN's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #62 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #51 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Minnesota leads 38–25–2 · Minnesota has won 6 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| NEB | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →