#21Emmett Johnson

RB·Nebraska·20252.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Emmett Johnson is a Pass-Catching Back for Nebraska. Emmett's 2025 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 297 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Emmett Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

1451 Rush yards12 Rush TD251 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

46 Receptions370 Rec yards3 Rec TD8.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Explosiveness56
Consistency73
Receiving73

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Akron (SP+ -14).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCincinnati	W20-17	4.5	25	108	4.3	0	7	27	0	-0.12
2	vsAkron	W68-0	-13.9	14	140	10.0	2	2	7	1	0.53
3	vsHouston Christian	W59-7	—	13	78	6.0	2	2	7	0	0.47
4	vsMichigan	L27-30	12.4	19	65	3.4	0	5	32	0	-0.04
6	vsMichigan State	W38-27	-3.4	13	83	6.4	3	6	37	0	0.36
7	@Maryland	W34-31	0.6	21	176	8.4	0	2	20	0	0.30
8	@Minnesota	L6-24	1.5	14	63	4.5	0	5	37	0	0.06
9	vsNorthwestern	W28-21	5.8	27	124	4.6	2	2	15	0	0.35
10	vsUSC	L17-21	16.9	29	165	5.7	1	2	15	0	0.34
11	@UCLA	W28-21	-8.7	28	129	4.6	1	3	103	2	0.45
13	@Penn State	L10-37	18.1	19	103	5.4	0	8	48	0	-0.11
14	vsIowa	L16-40	19.7	29	217	7.5	1	2	22	0	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.2%

Passing plays

16.1%

Rushing plays

65.4%

Standard downs

43.7%

Passing downs

29.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.