Fresno State vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 3:41FRESDylan Lynch 33 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q4 10:35FRESDylan Lynch 43 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q3 4:30FRESBryson Donelson 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)24–7
- Q3 10:47FRESBrandon Ramirez 3 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:05FRESDylan Lynch 36 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 2:07BOISChase Penry 10 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:28FRESElijah Gilliam 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FRES did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.5 vs 3rd & 8.2
- PassCarson Conklin 10/21, 35 YDS
- RushRayshon Luke 16 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecJosiah Freeman 4 REC, 27 YDS
- PassMax Cutforth 14/29, 106 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMalik Sherrod 10 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecChase Penry 5 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:47FRES +26%
B. Ramirez run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK)
- Q2 2:07BOIS +20%
Chase Penry 10 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)
- Q3 4:30FRES +20%
B. Donelson run for 2 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK)
- Q1 2:28FRES +16%
Elijah Gilliam 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)
- Q4 10:35FRES +12%
D. Lynch 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:26FRES +11%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 41 yards to the BOI07 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BOI07
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Boise State?
Fresno State 30, Boise State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Total yards | 193 |
| 35 | Passing yards | 102 |
| 189 | Rushing yards | 91 |
| 15 | First downs | 11 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 10/21 | Comp/Att | 15/33 |
| 1.7 | Yards per pass | 3.1 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-56 | Penalties | 9-94 |
| 33:14 | Possession | 26:46 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:41FRESDylan Lynch 33 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q4 10:35FRESDylan Lynch 43 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q3 4:30FRESBryson Donelson 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)24–7
- Q3 10:47FRESBrandon Ramirez 3 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:05FRESDylan Lynch 36 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 2:07BOISChase Penry 10 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:28FRESElijah Gilliam 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1724, FRES Elo 1360 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -17 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #8 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Boise State leads 17–10 · Fresno State has won 3 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| FRES | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#73) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#55) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →