#17Carson Conklin

QB·Fresno State·2025

Carson Conklin is a Clutch Passer for Fresno State. Carson's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 91 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Conklin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

47/96 Comp/Att354 Pass yards1 Pass TD2 INT49.0% Comp %

Rushing

-16 Rush yards0 Rush TD15 Carries-1.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency0
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
3	vsSouthern	W56-7	—	5/6	42	0	0	61.5	6	0.34
9	vsSan Diego State	L0-23	6.7	20/42	182	0	2	18.0	-14	-0.13
10	@Boise State	W30-7	3.1	10/21	35	0	0	17.0	5	-0.20
12	vsWyoming	W24-3	-11.3	12/27	95	1	0	17.3	-13	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

39.4%

Passing plays

81.4%

Rushing plays

8.4%

Standard downs

28.8%

Passing downs

57.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.27
Passing downs: 0.05
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.04 / -0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).