Penn State vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsMINN
- Q4 5:48MINNDragan Kesich 26 Yd Field Goal 26–25
- Q4 11:51PSURyan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 26–22
- Q3 3:43PSUNicholas Singleton 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)23–22
- Q3 9:59MINNDragan Kesich 42 Yd Field Goal 16–22
- Q2 0:18MINNEthan Robinson Defensive PAT Conversion16–19
- Q2 0:19PSUDrew Allar 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker PAT blocked)16–17
- Q2 1:03MINNJameson Geers 21 Yd pass from Max Brosmer (Dragan Kesich Kick)10–17
- Q2 7:50PSURyan Barker 45 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 10:48PSUOmari Evans 45 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:56MINNDragan Kesich 48 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:57MINNMarcus Major 20 Yd Run (Dragan Kesich Kick)0–7
How the model called it
A November night in Minnesota came down to a single point Penn State stole when nobody was looking — and a goal-line stand the Gophers never got to make.
There are games you win with a haymaker and games you win by the width of a fingernail. Penn State left Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday night having won by exactly one point, and the longer you sit with it, the more you understand that the whole evening hinged on a single play most of the crowd had already stopped watching.
Rewind to the chaos at the end of the first half. Minnesota had just thrown the building into a frenzy — Max Brosmer finding Jameson Geers for 21 yards and a touchdown with barely a minute left, the Gophers suddenly ahead and alive. Penn State answered with the kind of hurried, desperate drive that usually ends in a field goal or a sigh. Instead Drew Allar tucked it and ran it in himself from four yards out with 19 seconds on the clock. And then the night turned strange.
- PassDrew Allar 21/28, 244 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNicholas Singleton 13 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Warren 8 REC, 102 YDS
- PassMax Brosmer 15/23, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarius Taylor 17 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecDaniel Jackson 6 REC, 90 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,672 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:43PSU +36%
Nicholas Singleton 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
- Q2 1:03MINN +28%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 21 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
- Q4 2:12PSU +27%
Tyler Warren run for no gain to the MINN 25
- Q4 5:48MINN +21%
Dragan Kesich 26 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 11:51PSU +20%
Ryan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 10:48PSU +20%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 45 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Minnesota?
Penn State 26, Minnesota 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| PSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 281 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/28 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 25:49 | Possession | 34:11 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:02 PSU punt on 4th & 1 at PSU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:48MINNDragan Kesich 26 Yd Field Goal 26–25
- Q4 11:51PSURyan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 26–22
- Q3 3:43PSUNicholas Singleton 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)23–22
- Q3 9:59MINNDragan Kesich 42 Yd Field Goal 16–22
- Q2 0:18MINNEthan Robinson Defensive PAT Conversion16–19
- Q2 0:19PSUDrew Allar 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker PAT blocked)16–17
- Q2 1:03MINNJameson Geers 21 Yd pass from Max Brosmer (Dragan Kesich Kick)10–17
- Q2 7:50PSURyan Barker 45 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 10:48PSUOmari Evans 45 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:56MINNDragan Kesich 48 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:57MINNMarcus Major 20 Yd Run (Dragan Kesich Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1590, PSU Elo 1987 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN +13.5 (20% to win) — 2.5 points clear of PSU's market line of +11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 11–6 · Penn State has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| PSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.9 (#3) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#23) |
| +15 / -15 | offense / defense | +3 / -12 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 2.28 |
| 1.40 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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One Point, One Blocked Kick, And Penn State Survives Minneapolis
A November night in Minnesota came down to a single point Penn State stole when nobody was looking — and a goal-line stand the Gophers never got to make.
Ryan Barker's extra point — the most automatic play in football — got blocked. For half a second it looked like a gift handed back to Minnesota. But Penn State's Ethan Robinson scooped up the wreckage and carried it the other way for a defensive two-point conversion. Two points off a blocked kick. If you are scoring at home, that is the entire final margin, banked in the half's dying breath, in a sequence nobody could have drawn up.
The defense kept handing it back
All night, when Penn State needed a stop, a Nittany Lion put his hands on the football. In the second quarter, Dominic DeLuca jumped a Brosmer throw and returned it 29 yards to the Minnesota 23, snuffing out a drive and stealing the field. To open the fourth, Brosmer dropped back, lost nine yards and the ball both, and Zakee Wheatley fell on the fumble at the Minnesota 41. Twice the Gophers had something building; twice they walked off with nothing but the sick feeling of giving it away.
Between the takeaways, this was a heavyweight clinch. Omari Evans had given Penn State its first real jolt with a 45-yard touchdown catch from Allar, and Nicholas Singleton bullied in from 12 in the third to push the lead. But Minnesota would not go away. Dragan Kesich, automatic from anywhere, kept the Gophers within a single possession with kicks of 48, 42 and finally 26 yards. Tyler Warren did Tyler Warren things — 102 yards' worth of chain-moving catches — and still the margin stayed a coin's edge.
The cruelest part for Minnesota came at the very end. Penn State, nursing its one point, got the ball to the 3-yard line — close enough to taste a backbreaking touchdown — with 27 seconds left. The Gophers burned a timeout. The Nittany Lions never needed the score; they had the lead and the clock, and they simply let the air out of the building one kneel-down's worth at a time. The goal-line stand Minnesota wanted to make never came, because Penn State refused to hand it the chance.
One point. A blocked kick that bounced the right way, a couple of giveaways the Gophers will see in their sleep, and a finish that asked Minnesota to win it and never quite let them try. Penn State survived. On nights like this, surviving is the whole art.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →