Navy vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsARMY
- Q4 3:45NAVYNathan Kirkwood 27 Yd Field Goal 31–13
- Q4 8:50NAVYBlake Horvath 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)28–13
- Q4 14:44ARMYTrey Gronotte 31 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q3 6:34NAVYEli Heidenreich 52 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–10
- Q3 8:15ARMYTrey Gronotte 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 6:29ARMYHayden Reed 23 Yd pass from Bryson Daily (Trey Gronotte Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:30NAVYBrandon Chatman 18 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:56NAVYBlake Horvath 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NAVY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassBlake Horvath 4/9, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBlake Horvath 25 CAR, 204 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 1 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryson Daily 7/16, 65 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushKanye Udoh 14 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecHayden Reed 3 REC, 29 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:34NAVY +24%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 52 yds for a TD Navy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Eli Heidenreich) to the ARMY 0 (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q2 11:30NAVY +19%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 18 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q2 6:29ARMY +19%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Hayden Reed for 23 yds for a TD (Trey Gronotte KICK)
- Q1 9:06NAVY +15%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds for a TD
- Q4 12:33NAVY +12%
Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 45
- Q3 8:15ARMY +12%
Trey Gronotte 39 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Army?
Navy 31, Army 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 179 |
| 107 | Passing yards | 65 |
| 277 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 15 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 4/9 | Comp/Att | 7/16 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-70 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 29:40 | Possession | 30:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:05 NAVY punt on 4th & 13 at ARMY 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:45NAVYNathan Kirkwood 27 Yd Field Goal 31–13
- Q4 8:50NAVYBlake Horvath 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)28–13
- Q4 14:44ARMYTrey Gronotte 31 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q3 6:34NAVYEli Heidenreich 52 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)21–10
- Q3 8:15ARMYTrey Gronotte 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 6:29ARMYHayden Reed 23 Yd pass from Bryson Daily (Trey Gronotte Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:30NAVYBrandon Chatman 18 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:56NAVYBlake Horvath 1 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1686, NAVY Elo 1503 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ARMY -7.3 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #70 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #29 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Navy leads 63–55–7 · Navy has won 2 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.1 (#25) | CORE overall | +10.0 (#35) |
| +11 / -3 | offense / defense | +10 / -0 |
| 2.74 | points / drive | 3.77 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 1.95 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -20 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →