Troy vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsKSU
- Q4 2:50KSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)13–42
- Q4 8:48KSUTreshaun Ward 1 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)13–35
- Q4 13:58TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 37 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q3 3:47KSUWill Howard 2 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:10KSUPhillip Brooks 39 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:52TROYChris Lewis 21 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)10–14
- Q2 3:46TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 24 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 14:16KSUPhillip Brooks 2 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:35KSUJadon Jackson 9 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGunnar Watson 17/32, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKimani Vidal 17 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecChris Lewis 5 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- PassWill Howard 21/32, 250 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTreshaun Ward 16 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecPhillip Brooks 7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:52TROY +14%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 21 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
- Q2 0:10KSU +13%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 39 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
- Q1 11:35KSU +12%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 9 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
- Q2 14:16KSU +9%
Phillip Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Kansas State?
Troy 13, Kansas State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| TROY | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 286 | Total yards | 397 |
| 216 | Passing yards | 250 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 15 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 10-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/38 | Comp/Att | 21/32 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-22 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 30:23 | Possession | 29:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:00 KSU punt on 4th & 2 at TROY 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:50KSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)13–42
- Q4 8:48KSUTreshaun Ward 1 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)13–35
- Q4 13:58TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 37 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q3 3:47KSUWill Howard 2 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:10KSUPhillip Brooks 39 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)10–21
- Q2 0:52TROYChris Lewis 21 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)10–14
- Q2 3:46TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 24 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 14:16KSUPhillip Brooks 2 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:35KSUJadon Jackson 9 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1740, TROY Elo 1556 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -9.8 (75% to win) — 5.2 points clear of TROY's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TROY | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#31) | CORE overall | +14.5 (#24) |
| -0 / -11 | offense / defense | +10 / -5 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | 3.07 |
| 1.38 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →