Texas State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsARST
- Q4 6:19TXSTKole Wilson 3 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)31–77
- Q4 10:39ARSTDane Motley 50 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–77
- Q4 12:20ARSTMelique Straker 87 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–70
- Q3 0:00ARSTJa'Quez Cross 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–63
- Q3 0:12TXSTKole Wilson 7 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)24–56
- Q3 5:57ARSTTrevian Thomas 91 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–56
- Q3 8:20ARSTCedric Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–49
- Q3 12:39ARSTCedric Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–42
- Q2 1:52ARSTJa'Quez Cross 57 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–35
- Q2 4:01ARSTJa'Quez Cross 15 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–28
- Q2 9:14ARSTJa'Quez Cross 42 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–21
- Q2 12:16TXSTJoey Hobert 18 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)17–14
- Q1 2:03ARSTZak Wallace 8 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–14
- Q1 6:50TXSTMason Shipley 43 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 8:45ARSTZak Wallace 41 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:17TXSTIsmail Mahdi 4 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 7.3
- PassTJ Finley 37/55, 366 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDonerio Davenport 14 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecAshtyn Hawkins 8 REC, 165 YDS
- PassJaylen Raynor 14/17, 203 YDS
- RushJa'Quez Cross 13 CAR, 139 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCourtney Jackson 7 REC, 107 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 372 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:01ARST +21%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q2 9:14ARST +21%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q2 12:16TXST +19%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q1 2:03ARST +19%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q1 8:45ARST +16%
Zak Wallace run for 41 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q1 10:17TXST +15%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Arkansas State?
Texas State 31, Arkansas State 77.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TXST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 539 | Total yards | 487 |
| 366 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 173 | Rushing yards | 284 |
| 32 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 37/55 | Comp/Att | 14/17 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 11.9 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-56 | Penalties | 9-87 |
| 33:54 | Possession | 26:06 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:57 TXST go for it on 4th & 4 at ARST 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:19TXSTKole Wilson 3 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)31–77
- Q4 10:39ARSTDane Motley 50 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–77
- Q4 12:20ARSTMelique Straker 87 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–70
- Q3 0:00ARSTJa'Quez Cross 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–63
- Q3 0:12TXSTKole Wilson 7 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)24–56
- Q3 5:57ARSTTrevian Thomas 91 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–56
- Q3 8:20ARSTCedric Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–49
- Q3 12:39ARSTCedric Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–42
- Q2 1:52ARSTJa'Quez Cross 57 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–35
- Q2 4:01ARSTJa'Quez Cross 15 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–28
- Q2 9:14ARSTJa'Quez Cross 42 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–21
- Q2 12:16TXSTJoey Hobert 18 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)17–14
- Q1 2:03ARSTZak Wallace 8 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–14
- Q1 6:50TXSTMason Shipley 43 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 8:45ARSTZak Wallace 41 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:17TXSTIsmail Mahdi 4 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1222, TXST Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +5.4 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #87 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 8–5 · 31% have been one-possession games
| TXST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0 (#67) | CORE overall | -10.4 (#100) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -3 / +8 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →