San Diego State vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsAF
- Q4 9:45AFJensen Jones 4 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)10–49
- Q3 7:09AFTrey Taylor 30 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–42
- Q3 7:18AFJared Roznos 53 Yd pass from Zac Larrier (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–35
- Q3 12:04AFCade Harris 54 Yd pass from Zac Larrier (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:00SDSUJack Browning 61 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 0:43AFEmmanuel Michel 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)7–21
- Q2 4:21AFEmmanuel Michel 2 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:31AFCade Harris 7 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:34SDSUJoshua Nicholson 21 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJalen Mayden 13/24, 122 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKenan Christon II 14 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecMark Redman 2 REC, 27 YDS
- PassZac Larrier 6/7, 189 YDS, 2 TD
- RushZac Larrier 8 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecCade Harris 2 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 372 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:34SDSU +19%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
- Q2 10:31AF +19%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
- Q2 4:21AF +13%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
- Q2 0:43AF +7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Air Force?
San Diego State 10, Air Force 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
| SDSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 227 | Total yards | 476 |
| 122 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 105 | Rushing yards | 287 |
| 14 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 6/7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 27.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-34 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 27:55 | Possession | 32:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:18 SDSU punt on 4th & 2 at SDSU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:45AFJensen Jones 4 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)10–49
- Q3 7:09AFTrey Taylor 30 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–42
- Q3 7:18AFJared Roznos 53 Yd pass from Zac Larrier (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–35
- Q3 12:04AFCade Harris 54 Yd pass from Zac Larrier (Matthew Dapore Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:00SDSUJack Browning 61 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 0:43AFEmmanuel Michel 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)7–21
- Q2 4:21AFEmmanuel Michel 2 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:31AFCade Harris 7 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:34SDSUJoshua Nicholson 21 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1722, SDSU Elo 1436 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -13.8 (82% to win) — 3.3 points clear of AF's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 22–18 · Air Force has won 3 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#106) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#39) |
| -4 / +10 | offense / defense | +5 / -3 |
| 1.57 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 1.76 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -31 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →