#18Jalen Mayden

QB·San Diego State·2023

Jalen Mayden is a Dual-Threat QB for San Diego State. Jalen's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 373 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen Mayden's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

199/314 Comp/Att2031 Pass yards10 Pass TD9 INT63.4% Comp %

Rushing

528 Rush yards5 Rush TD128 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat55
Consistency61
Clutch17

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Boise State (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
0	vsOhio	W20-13	-1.6	18/28	164	2	0	53.0	34	0	—
1	vsIdaho State	W36-28	—	13/19	85	0	0	60.8	132	2	0.43
2	vsUCLA	L10-35	9.7	19/37	196	1	3	27.8	18	0	0.19
3	@Oregon State	L9-26	12.6	20/32	256	0	1	42.0	9	0	0.03
4	vsBoise State	L31-34	5.9	16/22	241	1	0	86.5	85	1	0.55
5	@Air Force	L10-49	5.9	13/24	122	1	1	53.0	17	0	0.34
7	@Hawai'i	W41-34	-16.4	18/24	221	1	1	35.6	53	0	0.25
8	vsNevada	L0-6	-22.0	6/14	47	0	0	3.8	52	0	-0.26
10	vsUtah State	L24-32	-10.9	25/39	265	3	1	42.2	-5	0	—
11	@Colorado State	L19-22	-8.9	19/25	128	0	0	33.2	16	1	0.01
12	@San José State	L13-24	-3.4	15/24	117	0	2	26.5	21	0	-0.07
13	vsFresno State	W33-18	2.5	17/26	189	1	0	74.1	96	1	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.9%

Passing plays

98.6%

Rushing plays

26.1%

Standard downs

46.7%

Passing downs

76.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.14
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).