Oregon vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsTTU
- Q4 0:35OREJeffrey Bassa 45 Yd Interception Return (Camden Lewis Kick)38–30
- Q4 1:10ORECamden Lewis 34 Yd Field Goal 31–30
- Q4 5:13TTUGino Garcia 45 Yd Field Goal 28–30
- Q4 10:27ORECamden Lewis 23 Yd Field Goal 28–27
- Q4 14:47OREBucky Irving 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)25–27
- Q3 6:16TTUJerand Bradley 34 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Gino Garcia Kick)18–27
- Q3 12:58TTUTyler Shough 5 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)18–20
- Q2 0:59ORECamden Lewis 28 Yd Field Goal 18–13
- Q2 13:01TTUMason Tharp 7 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–13
- Q1 3:45ORETez Johnson 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Patrick Herbert Pass to Terrance Ferguson for Two-Point Conversion)15–7
- Q1 8:58ORETroy Franklin 72 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:37TTUMyles Price 18 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Gino Garcia Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBo Nix 32/44, 359 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBo Nix 9 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecTroy Franklin 6 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyler Shough 24/38, 282 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushTyler Shough 23 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJerand Bradley 5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,696 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:35ORE +60%
Jeffrey Bassa 45 Yd Interception Return (Camden Lewis Kick)
- Q4 1:10TTU +48%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Xavier White for 17 yds to the TTU 42 for a 1ST down
- Q4 1:10ORE +45%
Camden Lewis 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:47ORE +30%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q4 5:13TTU +25%
Gino Garcia 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:58TTU +25%
Tyler Shough run for 5 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Texas Tech?
Oregon 38, Texas Tech 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TTU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORE | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 472 | Total yards | 456 |
| 359 | Passing yards | 282 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 21 | First downs | 27 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 32/44 | Comp/Att | 24/38 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 14-124 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 32:15 | Possession | 27:45 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:27 ORE field goal on 4th & 2 at TTU 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:35OREJeffrey Bassa 45 Yd Interception Return (Camden Lewis Kick)38–30
- Q4 1:10ORECamden Lewis 34 Yd Field Goal 31–30
- Q4 5:13TTUGino Garcia 45 Yd Field Goal 28–30
- Q4 10:27ORECamden Lewis 23 Yd Field Goal 28–27
- Q4 14:47OREBucky Irving 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)25–27
- Q3 6:16TTUJerand Bradley 34 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Gino Garcia Kick)18–27
- Q3 12:58TTUTyler Shough 5 Yd Run (Gino Garcia Kick)18–20
- Q2 0:59ORECamden Lewis 28 Yd Field Goal 18–13
- Q2 13:01TTUMason Tharp 7 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–13
- Q1 3:45ORETez Johnson 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Patrick Herbert Pass to Terrance Ferguson for Two-Point Conversion)15–7
- Q1 8:58ORETroy Franklin 72 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:37TTUMyles Price 18 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Gino Garcia Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1585, ORE Elo 1649 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU +0.2 (51% to win) — 4.8 points clear of TTU's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORE | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +40.9 (#1) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#52) |
| +28 / -13 | offense / defense | -3 / -6 |
| 4.02 | points / drive | 1.98 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 2.12 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →