Murray State vs. North Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Murray State0-2

06

North Dakota State5-2

▸0038

Final

FargodomeConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
MURR	0	3	3	0	6
NDSU	21	7	7	3	38

MURRTeam statsNDSU

164Total yards377

108Pass202

56Rush175

11First downs19

2-133rd down7-14

1Turnovers1

28:28Possession31:32

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:05NDSUGriffin Crosa 36 Yd Field Goal 6–38
• Q3 5:49MURRMatt Maldonado 39 Yd Field Goal 6–35
• Q3 13:07NDSUJayden Price 66 Yd Punt Return (Griffin Crosa Kick)3–35
• Q2 1:49MURRJames London 53 Yd Field Goal 3–28
• Q2 6:23NDSUZach Mathis 15 Yd pass from Cam Miller (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:11NDSUBraylon Henderson 8 Yd pass from Cam Miller (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–21
• Q1 5:35NDSUCam Miller 9 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:14NDSUCam Miller 15 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

NDSU −32.5

Against the number

MURR covered

line NDSU −32.5

What the numbers say

• MURR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NDSU 100%50%MURR 100%

Kickoff138 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NDSU (top)MURR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NDSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NDSU −32.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MURR 6 – 38 NDSU

Leaders

Murray State

• PassDJ Williams 15/26, 108 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJawaun Northington 9 CAR, 37 YDS
• RecMichael Fox 4 REC, 27 YDS

North Dakota State

• PassCam Miller 18/24, 192 YDS, 2 TD
• RushCam Miller 6 CAR, 55 YDS, 2 TD
• RecZach Mathis 8 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

119

Points / snap

0.37

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NDSU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 524 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

NDSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOregon vs Stanford42-6WWyoming vs Nevada42-6WJames Madison vs Coastal Carolina39-7WSouth Dakota State vs Missouri State45-9WTexas State vs Arkansas State41-9

Fourth downs

15 calls

NDSU gave up 3.9 points to the model on fourth down.MURR 6/8 · NDSU 2/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Murray State vs. North Dakota State?

Murray State 6, North Dakota State 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NDSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MURR

NDSU

26%

Success rate

41%

-0.21

EPA / pass

0.38

-0.08

EPA / rush

0.13

29%

Early-down success

39%

27%

Pass success

47%

24%

Rush success

35%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

48%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

55%

Pass rate

47%

8.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

MURR

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

NDSU

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MURR		NDSU
164	Total yards	377
108	Passing yards	202
56	Rushing yards	175
11	First downs	19
2-13	3rd down	7-14
0-2	4th down	0-1
15/27	Comp/Att	20/28
4.0	Yards per pass	7.2
2.0	Yards per rush	5.1
1	Turnovers	1
8-80	Penalties	9-69
28:28	Possession	31:32

Fourth downs

15 calls

MURR

6/8 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

NDSU

2/5 with the model

−3.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 9:29 NDSU punt on 4th & 1 at MURR 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.98 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MURR 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NDSU 5/11 scoring drives

NDSUTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 22Q1

NDSUTD10 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q1

MURRINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

NDSUTD4 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 14Q1

NDSUDOWNS7 pl, 17 yds· opp 43Q1

MURRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 26Q2

NDSUTD8 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2

MURRFG11 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q2

NDSUPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

MURREND1 pl, -1 yds· own 15Q2

MURRTD3 pl, -6 yds· own 16Q3

MURRFG13 pl, 63 yds· own 16Q3

NDSUFUM5 pl, 31 yds· own 26Q3

MURRDOWNS6 pl, 35 yds· own 43Q3

NDSUPUNT7 pl, 37 yds· own 22Q3

MURRPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 20Q4

NDSUPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 39Q4

MURRDOWNS7 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q4

NDSUFG4 pl, -2 yds· opp 16Q4

MURRPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4

NDSUEND3 pl, -2 yds· own 28Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:05NDSUGriffin Crosa 36 Yd Field Goal 6–38
• Q3 5:49MURRMatt Maldonado 39 Yd Field Goal 6–35
• Q3 13:07NDSUJayden Price 66 Yd Punt Return (Griffin Crosa Kick)3–35
• Q2 1:49MURRJames London 53 Yd Field Goal 3–28
• Q2 6:23NDSUZach Mathis 15 Yd pass from Cam Miller (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:11NDSUBraylon Henderson 8 Yd pass from Cam Miller (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–21
• Q1 5:35NDSUCam Miller 9 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:14NDSUCam Miller 15 Yd Run (Griffin Crosa Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →