Memphis vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsISU
- Q4 9:55ISUJaylin Noel 23 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–36
- Q3 4:01ISUEaston Dean 15 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)20–36
- Q3 7:59MEMSutton Smith 48 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)13–36
- Q3 11:38MEMAnthony Landphere 5 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)13–29
- Q2 0:00MEMTanner Gillis 49 Yd Field Goal 13–22
- Q2 0:35ISUChase Contreraz 39 Yd Field Goal 13–19
- Q2 6:19ISUChase Contreraz 22 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q2 11:25ISUJayden Higgins 29 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)7–19
- Q1 0:30MEMJoseph Scates 51 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 5:53MEMSeth Henigan 11 Yd Run (Tanner Gillis Kick)0–13
- Q1 13:41MEMDemeer Blankumsee 70 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassSeth Henigan 24/34, 364 YDS, 4 TD
- RushBlake Watson 15 CAR, 107 YDS
- RecRoc Taylor 8 REC, 102 YDS
- PassRocco Becht 22/38, 446 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAbu Sama III 12 CAR, 4 YDS
- RecJayden Higgins 9 REC, 214 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Iowa State?
Memphis 36, Iowa State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 530 | Total yards | 446 |
| 364 | Passing yards | 446 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 0 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/34 | Comp/Att | 22/40 |
| 10.7 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 0.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 3-19 |
| 34:24 | Possession | 25:36 |
- Q4 9:55ISUJaylin Noel 23 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–36
- Q3 4:01ISUEaston Dean 15 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)20–36
- Q3 7:59MEMSutton Smith 48 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)13–36
- Q3 11:38MEMAnthony Landphere 5 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)13–29
- Q2 0:00MEMTanner Gillis 49 Yd Field Goal 13–22
- Q2 0:35ISUChase Contreraz 39 Yd Field Goal 13–19
- Q2 6:19ISUChase Contreraz 22 Yd Field Goal 10–19
- Q2 11:25ISUJayden Higgins 29 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Chase Contreraz Kick)7–19
- Q1 0:30MEMJoseph Scates 51 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 5:53MEMSeth Henigan 11 Yd Run (Tanner Gillis Kick)0–13
- Q1 13:41MEMDemeer Blankumsee 70 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1702, MEM Elo 1571 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU -7.6 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #30 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| MEM | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#51) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#36) |
| +8 / +5 | offense / defense | +1 / -7 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →