Louisville vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsPITT
- Q4 3:03PITTKonata Mumpfield 31 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)21–38
- Q3 0:14PITTM.J. Devonshire 86 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)21–31
- Q3 3:39PITTC'Bo Flemister 3 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)21–24
- Q3 11:32PITTBen Sauls 46 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 0:25LOUIsaac Guerendo 5 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:23PITTC'Bo Flemister 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:43LOUIsaac Guerendo 1 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:37PITTBub Means 46 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:39LOUChris Bell 7 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Brock Travelstead Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJack Plummer 29/52, 350 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMaurice Turner 12 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecJamari Thrash 9 REC, 120 YDS
- PassChristian Veilleux 12/26, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRodney Hammond Jr. 11 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecBub Means 4 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:14PITT +32%
M.J. Devonshire 86 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)
- Q3 3:39PITT +30%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
- Q2 1:23PITT +20%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
- Q2 0:25LOU +19%
Isaac Guerendo run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
- Q2 11:43LOU +17%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)
- Q1 2:37PITT +16%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 46 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. Pittsburgh?
Louisville 21, Pittsburgh 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LOU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 430 | Total yards | 288 |
| 350 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 88 |
| 28 | First downs | 13 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 29/52 | Comp/Att | 12/26 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-25 | Penalties | 8-87 |
| 33:11 | Possession | 26:49 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:34 PITT punt on 4th & 2 at PITT 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:03PITTKonata Mumpfield 31 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)21–38
- Q3 0:14PITTM.J. Devonshire 86 Yd Interception Return (Ben Sauls Kick)21–31
- Q3 3:39PITTC'Bo Flemister 3 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)21–24
- Q3 11:32PITTBen Sauls 46 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 0:25LOUIsaac Guerendo 5 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:23PITTC'Bo Flemister 1 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:43LOUIsaac Guerendo 1 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:37PITTBub Means 46 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:39LOUChris Bell 7 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Brock Travelstead Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1488, LOU Elo 1718 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT +6.8 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #56 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #10 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →The series is level at 11–11 · Louisville has won 2 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| LOU | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.5 (#18) | CORE overall | +0.2 (#60) |
| +6 / -10 | offense / defense | -7 / -7 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | 1.17 |
| 1.87 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →