East Carolina vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsAPP
- Q4 5:44APPDavid Larkins 6 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–43
- Q3 0:09APPJoey Aguilar 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)28–36
- Q3 8:18APPMilan Tucker 35 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–29
- Q3 10:03ECUShavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)28–22
- Q3 12:05APPKaedin Robinson 34 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–22
- Q2 1:15APPKanye Roberts 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q2 2:14ECURahjai Harris 4 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)21–10
- Q2 9:25ECUAntoine Jackson 8 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)14–10
- Q1 3:49APPMichael Hughes 36 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:39APPNate Noel 68 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:14ECURahjai Harris 7 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ECU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and APP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.0 vs 3rd & 7.7
- PassAlex Flinn 17/31, 158 YDS, 3 INT
- RushRahjai Harris 12 CAR, 56 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJhari Patterson 4 REC, 44 YDS
- PassJoey Aguilar 17/29, 241 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Noel 25 CAR, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKaedin Robinson 4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,674 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:18APP +26%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q3 10:03ECU +26%
Shavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)
- Q3 0:09APP +23%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q3 12:05APP +21%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q3 15:00APP +19%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 25
- Q3 3:00ECU +9%
Alex Flinn pass intercepted
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. App State?
East Carolina 28, App State 43.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| ECU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 480 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 241 |
| 99 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-80 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 28:32 | Possession | 31:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:22 APP punt on 4th & 9 at ECU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:44APPDavid Larkins 6 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–43
- Q3 0:09APPJoey Aguilar 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)28–36
- Q3 8:18APPMilan Tucker 35 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)28–29
- Q3 10:03ECUShavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)28–22
- Q3 12:05APPKaedin Robinson 34 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–22
- Q2 1:15APPKanye Roberts 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q2 2:14ECURahjai Harris 4 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)21–10
- Q2 9:25ECUAntoine Jackson 8 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)14–10
- Q1 3:49APPMichael Hughes 36 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:39APPNate Noel 68 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:14ECURahjai Harris 7 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1556, ECU Elo 1443 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -6.9 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 8–5 · App State has won 3 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| ECU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.0 (#125) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#49) |
| -19 / +1 | offense / defense | +8 / +5 |
| 0.90 | points / drive | 2.47 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 41% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →