Kansas State vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsBAY
- Q4 14:06KSUDJ Giddens 1 Yd Run (Ty Zentner Kick)31–3
- Q3 1:53KSUBen Sinnott 19 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:00BAYJohn Mayers 37 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 2:09KSUDeuce Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)17–0
- Q2 5:57KSUTy Zentner 31 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 14:20KSUBen Sinnott 15 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassWill Howard 19/27, 196 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDeuce Vaughn 25 CAR, 106 YDS
- RecBen Sinnott 7 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBlake Shapen 22/38, 203 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRichard Reese 9 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecJosh Cameron 6 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:20KSU +20%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
- Q2 2:09KSU +13%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
- Q2 5:57KSU +9%
Ty Zentner 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 1:53KSU +6%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Baylor?
Kansas State 31, Baylor 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 405 | Total yards | 306 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 30 | First downs | 17 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 26/35 | Comp/Att | 22/38 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 37:37 | Possession | 22:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:15 BAY go for it on 4th & 6 at KSU 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:06KSUDJ Giddens 1 Yd Run (Ty Zentner Kick)31–3
- Q3 1:53KSUBen Sinnott 19 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:00BAYJohn Mayers 37 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 2:09KSUDeuce Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)17–0
- Q2 5:57KSUTy Zentner 31 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 14:20KSUBen Sinnott 15 Yd pass from Will Howard (Ty Zentner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1785, KSU Elo 1831 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -0.6 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #98 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →The series is level at 11–11 · 27% have been one-possession games
| KSU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.5 (#13) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#58) |
| +9 / -8 | offense / defense | +2 / -1 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.53 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →