Ohio State vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsCLEM
- Q4 10:42CLEMCornell Powell 26 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)49–28
- Q4 14:03OSUJameson Williams 45 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)49–21
- Q3 4:55OSUChris Olave 56 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)42–21
- Q3 7:56CLEMCornell Powell 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)35–21
- Q2 0:11OSUJeremy Ruckert 12 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)35–14
- Q2 5:12OSUChris Olave 9 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)28–14
- Q2 10:35OSUJeremy Ruckert 17 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)21–14
- Q1 1:36OSULuke Farrell 8 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:01CLEMTravis Etienne 3 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:59OSUTrey Sermon 32 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10CLEMTrevor Lawrence 2 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJustin Fields 22/28, 385 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
- RushTrey Sermon 31 CAR, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Olave 6 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTrevor Lawrence 33/48, 400 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTravis Etienne Jr. 10 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCornell Powell 8 REC, 139 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:35OSU +21%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
- Q2 5:12OSU +18%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 9 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
- Q1 1:36OSU +18%
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
- Q1 5:01CLEM +17%
Travis Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
- Q1 7:59OSU +16%
Trey Sermon run for 32 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
- Q1 12:10CLEM +16%
Trevor Lawrence run for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Clemson?
Ohio State 49, Clemson 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 639 | Total yards | 444 |
| 385 | Passing yards | 400 |
| 254 | Rushing yards | 44 |
| 26 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 22/28 | Comp/Att | 33/48 |
| 13.8 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-95 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 34:05 | Possession | 25:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:51 CLEM punt on 4th & 2 at CLEM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:42CLEMCornell Powell 26 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)49–28
- Q4 14:03OSUJameson Williams 45 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)49–21
- Q3 4:55OSUChris Olave 56 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)42–21
- Q3 7:56CLEMCornell Powell 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick)35–21
- Q2 0:11OSUJeremy Ruckert 12 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)35–14
- Q2 5:12OSUChris Olave 9 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)28–14
- Q2 10:35OSUJeremy Ruckert 17 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)21–14
- Q1 1:36OSULuke Farrell 8 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:01CLEMTravis Etienne 3 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:59OSUTrey Sermon 32 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10CLEMTrevor Lawrence 2 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 2221, OSU Elo 2111 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CLEM -4.4 (63% to win) — 2.6 points clear of OSU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #55 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #46 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →| OSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.5 (#6) | CORE overall | +28.8 (#3) |
| +19 / -2 | offense / defense | +17 / -11 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 3.15 |
| 2.01 | allowed / drive | 1.50 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →